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New £1.2bn supercomputer for Met Office as UK floods.

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The Met Office is set to get a new £1.2bn supercomputer that it says will help the UK to better prepare for extreme weather events like the current flooding caused by Storm Dennis.
Data from this new supercomputer – which is expected to be the world’s most advanced dedicated solely to weather and climate – will be used to help more accurately predict storms, as well as identify the best locations for flood defenses and predict changes to the global climate. 
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/supercomputer-met-office-uk-floods/
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    Head of the Environment Agency (EA) James Bevan said that new housing should only be built on flood plains if it is immune to flooding.



    The problem with this is it pushes the flood plain elsewhere, ie, further down stream.

    We need methods  of controlling and regulating the water flow after deluges of rains as the flood plains would have operated in past times. Better to design water storage areas to provide for times when there is future drought!

    Legh

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    0 Former Community Member

    Legh Richardson:

    Interesting read. But it still hasn't stopped the flooding.

    Being able to predict five days in advance was unable to protect peoples property that now affects peoples lives. What practical use is it to be able to predict the way the jet stream moves around and consequently the quality of weather when we are unable to stop the UK from sinking into the ocean......

    IMO We need the skills of Geologists and Engineers to provide new forms of soakawys to provide Acquafirs, sumps and water storage. This would provide a reatively clean source of water for all the various reasons one might consider the use of water.

    If the Byzantines could do it so can we...perhaps?

    Legh

    Even this is a good move to try to minimize the problem of  flooding in UK:



    Environment Agency call for new homes to be flood proof


    https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/environment-agency-call-for-new-homes-to-be-flood-proof/5104515.article


     

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    0 Former Community Member

    Legh Richardson:




    Luciano Bacco:



    Poll:The UK’ s new £1.2bn supercomputer.


    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/poll-supercomputer/


    It appears that the readers of the engineer have voted against spending 1.2Bn. for various reasons given in the comments.


    Legh 

    By The Engineer 25th February 2020 10:40 am
    Affirmative and negative replies are almost balancing,
    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/poll-supercomputer/


     




     

  • 0
    Interesting read. But it still hasn't stopped the flooding.

    Being able to predict five days in advance was unable to protect peoples property that now affects peoples lives. What practical use is it to be able to predict the way the jet stream moves around and consequently the quality of weather when we are unable to stop the UK from sinking into the ocean......

    IMO We need the skills of Geologists and Engineers to provide new forms of soakawys to provide Acquafirs, sumps and water storage. This would provide a reatively clean source of water for all the various reasons one might consider the use of water.

    If the Byzantines could do it so can we...perhaps?

    Legh
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    From what I picked up from the Met office's own press release the computer is for rather more than just storm forecasting...maybe that just got picked up because it's flavour of the month at the moment?
    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/corporate/2020/supercomputer-funding-2020


    By the way, I only mentioned Tesco as a random example to put the amount of money in context. 1.2bn sounds a lot to most of us who find £300 for a new computer a lot of money, but in a national context it really isn't  (actually international as the MetOffice work is a key part of the international climate change work - see below).


    Very interesting programme this week which puts this into context...very calm, reasoned, and surprisingly positive speaker.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000fgcn

    The Life Scientific - Myles Allen on understanding climate change

    Professor Myles Allen has spent thirty years studying global climate change, trying to working out what we can and can't predict. He was one of the first scientists to quantify the extent to which human actions are responsible for global warming. As a lead author on the 3rd Assessment by the International Panel on Climate Change in 2001, he concluded that ‘most of the observed global warming was due to human influence’. More recently, (having established that calculating a safe concentration of greenhouse gases was very difficult indeed), he worked out instead how many tonnes of carbon would be acceptable, a shift in emphasis that paved the way for the current Net Zero carbon emissions policy. Myles tells Jim Al-Khalili how our ability to predict climate change has evolved from the early days when scientists had to rely on the combined computing power of hundreds of thousands of personal computers. He sheds light on how the IPCC works and explains why, he believes, fossil fuel industries must be forced to take back the carbon dioxide that they emit. If carbon capture and storage technologies makes their products more expensive, so be it. 





    Has a very interesting section about computer modelling.


    Cheers,


    Andy
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    Tesco's annual revenue (for example) is 52 billion pounds.



    The gross income was closer to 63Bn...But I very much doubt that Tescos would be interested in sponsoring any flood initiative as their net profit was for last year 1.32Bn (as found on google). This sort of expenditure would have to come from a governemnt initiative.

    This parallel quantum processing computer or whatever  will be able to predict the amount of rain to fall in a  limited area within a few hours of detection.

    So what is the purpose of being able to know how much rain is about to fall in a 100sq m of ground over the next hour? The solution, as I see it, is to look at seasonal changes and plan for a renewal of flood plains and new resevoire lakes. The Netherlands seems to have interesting methods of reducing flooding.

    Legh

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    Andy,

    I agree that it doesn't mean we can't spend on flood defences as well, but if the money is spent on the supercomputer, there is definitely £1.2bn that can't be spent somewhere else. (The income of the Met Office last year was just under £240m)

    My problem with this is that I agree that the computer will give better information and allow more accurate predictions of the where and when of flooding, but this only gives a few days warning to put things in place. Proper flood planning needs to be a long term solution, not a reaction to imminent flood predictions. With regard to the long term predictions, I don't think the new computer will give any better information than an extrapolation of current trends.

    Is it worthwhile getting a new supercomputer for the Met Office to provide more accurate forecasts? I think on balance it probably is.

    Is a new supercomputer going to make a difference in dealing with floods? I think on balance probably not.

    Should the announcement have suggested that the new computer was a solution to the present flooding crisis around the UK? I don't think so.

    Alasdair
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    Let's put this in perspective: Tesco's annual revenue (for example) is 52 billion pounds. Climate issues are arguably (I'd certainly argue it) the biggest single issue facing us.  One of the favourite arguments of climate change deniers is "you can't trust the models". Pull this all together and spending £1.2bn on improving the models is absolute peanuts in terms of our economy.


    That doesn't mean we can't spend on flood defences as well! But we're not going solve this one with a couple more drains and a few sandbags. This needs long term planning and action, and that needs the best data we can get. And no, I don't work for, or have any connection whatsoever with, the Met Office or the computer supply company. 


    Cheers,


    Andy
  • 0

    Luciano Bacco:



    Poll: The UK’s new £1.2bn supercomputer.


    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/poll-supercomputer/


    It appears that the readers of the engineer have voted against spending 1.2Bn. for various reasons given in the comments.


    Legh 

  • Former Community Member
    0 Former Community Member

    Poll: The UK’s new £1.2bn supercomputer.


    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/poll-supercomputer/



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