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How likely are rota power cuts this winter in UK?

broadgage

What is the general view among members as to the probability of planned or rota power cuts in the UK this winter. I refer here not to random breakdowns caused by extreme weather etc, but to planned rota cuts due to lack of generating capacity, or of fuel to run that capacity.

Forecasts seem to range from "we are doomed" to "it will be fine"

It seems to me that generating capacity is sufficient, but that supplies of natural gas to run that capacity may be insufficient.

I expect rota power cuts but only on a limited scale, perhaps about 5% of peak demand, and then only during adverse conditions, not all winter. I expect that electricity shortages will be worse in Europe, and that imports from Europe into the UK may therefore not be available. 

  • in reply to Jon Steward

    I don't feel it's that, I think we've half a'sed moving into a greener transition, which has led to gov and industry dragging its feet for years and now we've got to a head where we're all looking for these solutions and both gov and industry and suddenly flapping at how to develop and install everything yesterday. 

    In terms of reliability though It's not fair to describe any of these as unreliable, any energy source is unreliable depending on how you frame the question. 

    No coal? Unreliable

    No Gas? Unreliable

    No nuclear fuel? Unreliable

    Arguably you're a little more reliant on there generally being wind and sun SOMEWHERE on the planet most of the time.

  • There is a growing admission that planned or rota power cuts are possible, Very unlikely of course.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63155827

  • in reply to broadgage

    If there were a power cut, there isn't much point in staring at your CU in candle light. However, in this particular case, it appears that the lights are off because the MCBs are off.

  • And an electric torch would be safer and set a better example if you must stare at the consumer unit. However it seems to be a journalistic convention that any news item about power cuts must include a picture of a candle.

    I have large stocks of candles, and batteries, and oil lamps, and a large UPS, also long underwear and spare blankets.

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