China’s soaring carbon emissions are making it increasingly difficult to meet the government’s own ‘carbon intensity’ targets, an analysis has found.

Using official data, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that carbon dioxide emissions increased by 5.2% in 2023, which means a reduction of 4-6% is needed by 2025.

Rapid growth in electricity demand and low rainfall – which affected hydropower output – boosted demand for coal power in 2023, while the economic rebound from zero-Covid policies increased oil usage.

China’s CO2 emissions increased by 12% between 2020 and 2023, after a highly energy- and carbon-intensive response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The country is also at risk of missing all of its other key climate targets for 2025, including pledges to strictly limit coal demand growth and strictly control new coal power capacity, as well as targets for energy intensity and the share of low-carbon energy and renewables in overall demand.

While China has signed...