University of Birmingham researchers found that the current understanding of tipping points is lacking because such an event has not occurred in recent times.
Earth System models, routinely used for climate predictions, are taken from our understanding of the physical, chemical and biological processes that work together to shape our planet’s environment. But these models do not provide a complete picture because they fail to simulate known climate events from the past.
The new study finds that knowledge of climate reconstructions from thousands of years ago can be used to fine-tune Earth System models to provide a more accurate understanding of climate system thresholds.
Senior author Dr Peter Hopcroft, said: “Climate modelling is the only way we have to predict future climate change, but when models are developed, they are only evaluated with weather observations from the past 150 years or so. This means we have no way to verify their predictions of...