Despite the promises made by governments to transform the world of car travel, 2050 probably will not look that different from today at the global level and that goes for many other aspects of travel beyond just cars. One clear obstacle to change is that vehicles have a long useful life. Though commercial fleet owners tend to replace vehicles after five years to avoid rising repair costs, private owners will still buy them and keep them running for far longer.
Total distance travelled is a better indicator of a car’s lifespan than its chronological age. Unless it’s destined to become a collector’s trophy, the chances are it will do more than 100,000 miles before being deemed too clapped-out to carry on. Although scrappage bounties do have an effect, in some countries the average age has steadily been creeping up over the past decade. Belgium reported the average age increasing from 14 to 17 years from 2012 to 2020. So, there is a good chance that petrol...