They analysed six scenarios published between 2020 and mid-2021 by fossil fuel firms and the International Energy Agency (IEA) and calculated what the temperature outcomes for these scenarios are.
The scenarios include four from major oil firms (two from BP, one from Royal Dutch Shell, and one from Equinor), and two from the IEA.
The results show that most of the evaluated scenarios would be classified as ‘Lower 2°C pathways’ or those that keep peak warming below 2°C with a 66 per cent likelihood or more.
Dr Robert Brecha, co-lead author of the study from Climate Analytics, said: “Most of the scenarios we evaluated would be classified as inconsistent with the Paris Agreement as they fail to limit warming to ‘well below 2°C', let alone 1.52°C, and would exceed the 1.52°C warming limit by a significant margin.”
Equinor’s ‘Rebalance’ scenario peaks at a median warming of 1.73°C above pre-industrial levels in 2060, BP’s ‘Rapid’ at 1.73°C in 2058, Shell...