There is no “credible scenario” where an expansion to Heathrow Airport can go ahead without making it extremely difficult for the UK to meet its legally binding climate targets, researchers have said.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave the initial go-ahead on the controversial third runway at Britain’s largest airport soon after Labour entered office in the summer of 2024. But last year, MPs on the cross-party Environmental Audit Committee warned that the project, alongside other airport expansions, were inconsistent with the UK’s climate change goals and put the delivery of net zero carbon goals in “serious jeopardy”.

Now, new modelling by a team at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at The University of Manchester has concluded that the two technologies relied upon to enable passenger growth or airport expansion to fit within carbon budgets are not even close to being on track for sufficiently capacity within the required timeframe.

In particular, these are Sustainable Aviation...