It was a long time ago when I first wrote about inflation here. At that point, many respected authorities were claiming deflation was imminent. Then the call was transitory inflation, then followed mea culpas about not seeing it coming.
Well, here it is and inflation is everywhere in the headlines. It appears there is no consensus on what is going to happen next.
Here is my thesis.
Typically it’s cresting. It is my observation that attention in accidents is at its peak after they have happened, not before or during. The very moment of peak interest is exactly when is over and hopefully in a repair phase.
I am lucky here that my readers appreciate the second, third and fourth derivatives when many are struggling with the first.
I keep coming back to this, but inflation is always a result of government policy. The private sector simply has no control over it. They can get their inflation expectation as high as they like, go on strike, blow cash and credit...