Engineers will be very familiar with chaotic processes. In some special types of configurations, tiny differences in starting points can lead to wildly different outcomes. Small inputs can lead to giant unpredictable results. Poincaré predicted planet trajectories and won a prize, only to find a mistake in his work and realise he had actually proved it was nigh on impossible to predict them through what was to become the foundation of Chaos Theory.
It turns out that economics is one such system of moving bodies and while you might have a theory that works for now or perhaps one that fits the soon to change cyclical observations, things will decouple and land everyone in a fundamentally changed economic system.
The old joke goes, ‘If a butterfly in the Sahara can cause a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, someone needs to find that butterfly and swat it.’
Apparently, some people are fooled by randomness but in reality, most have no idea what it is all about...