The polar ice sheets are unlikely to remain intact even if the world manages to keep climate change to within the 1.5°C increase as established under the Paris Climate Agreement.
According to a team of researchers led by Durham University, global temperatures should instead be closer to 1°C above pre-industrial temperatures to avoid significant losses from the polar ice sheets and prevent a further acceleration in sea level rises.
The findings suggest a gloomy future for the world’s ice sheets as global warming is thought to have exceeded the 1°C threshold as far back as 2015. In January, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said 2024 even exceeded the 1.5°C threshold, albeit temporarily.
The Durham team reviewed a wealth of evidence to examine the effect that the 1.5°C target would have on the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, which together store enough ice to raise global sea levels by almost 65 metres.
The mass of ice lost from these ice sheets has quadrupled since the 1990s...