The research from DNV Energy estimates that 34 per cent of the energy mix in Europe will come from non-fossil fuel sources in 2024, two percentage points more than the pre-war forecast.
Overall, gas use is expected to drop an additional 9 per cent in 2024 compared to the pre-war model. The biggest percentage increase in alternative energy sources will be solar – up by 20 per cent in 2026. The delayed retirement of some of the continent’s nuclear power plants is also an important component of filling the gap, DNV said.
According to the research, although some coal is needed in the short term to meet Europe’s energy demand, by 2024 postponed retirements and higher nuclear utilisation will be important to cover the shortfall of natural gas.
Emission levels from energy are estimated to be 2.3 per cent lower in Europe in the period 2022-2030, compared to a pathway without the Ukraine war. This is due to the increased prominence of low carbon energy, more...