It’s a question that comes up time and again: “How will self-driving robotaxis improve the world?” The short answer is, they won’t. And yet robotaxis have long been the primary focus of many companies developing autonomous vehicle (AV) technology.
It’s what I call a vertical fallacy. Robotaxis represent one of the most complex product verticals to commercialise, requiring years of hugely difficult and costly development - only to create a market-ready passenger vehicle that moves only one or two people, thus delivering less value but at a significantly higher price. In fact, putting more single-occupancy taxis on the road closes off an important route to addressing congestion, safety and carbon emissions.
Chief among the obstacles that robotaxis face en route to market is the challenge of 'provability' of safety everywhere, meaning in all environments and situations, all of the time. Developing and proving safety amidst what is essentially an infinite...