UK deaths from extreme heat could soar under 2°C global warming

Temperature-related mortality, defined as when death is directly linked to climate temperature, could soar by up to 42 per cent in England and Wales during the hottest days of the year.

This means an increase from present-day levels of around 117 deaths per day, averaged over the 10 hottest days of the year, to around 166 deaths per day.

The current level of global warming – which is around 1.21°C – actually sees a slight decrease in temperature-related mortality in winter and a minimal net effect in summer for an overall slight decrease in temperature-related mortality.

The paper finds that the rate of increase particularly speeds up at 2°C of warming, with a much higher risk appearing beyond 2.5°C. The researchers say that 3°C warming could lead to a 75 per cent increase in mortality risk during heatwaves.

When plotted on a graph, the relationship between temperature and mortality is roughly u-shaped, meaning that at extremely high temperatures, which...