The continuation of current climate policies by governments around the world will lead to a “catastrophic temperature rise of up to 3.1°C”, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned.

The 2015 Paris Agreement saw countries commit to keeping global warming to an absolute maximum of 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, and ideally no more than a 1.5°C rise.

But a UNEP report found that nations would need to commit to cutting their annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in the next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – and back this up with rapid action. If such commitments are not achieved, the 1.5°C goal will be gone “within a few years”.

Updated NDCs are to be submitted early next year ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.

The Emissions Gap Report 2024 found the world is on course for a 2.6-3.1°C rise in global temperatures over the course of this century if NDC ambitions are not enhanced in the short term.

The 2.6°C scenario...