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Power networks could struggle by 2030 under soaring electric vehicle popularity ET

There is a lot written regarding the replacement of fossil fuelled (petrol and diesel) cars with electric cars. Some suggest it is easy, others suggest it is impossible. I decided to look briefly at the electricity requirements required to do this (This is based on Germany but I would expect the figures would be similar for the UK).

First step how much petrol and diesel is currently used?

From the IEA
www.iea.org/.../GermanyOSS.pdf
Germany petrol and diesel consumption 2010-2011.
Petrol 450 000 barrels per day
Diesel 1050 000 barrels per day

As a cross check on the total consumption:
world.bymap.org/OilConsumption.html
Total consumption petroleum consumption for Germany 2015
2 372 000 barrels per day

Next step what is the electrical energy equivalent of 1 barrel of Petrol/Diesel? From a couple of sources:

peakoil.com/.../how-much-energy-is-there-in-a-barrel-of-oil
1 barrel (crude) is 1,700 kilowatt hours 

letthesunwork.com/.../barrelofenergy.htm
A barrel of oil contains about six gigajoules of energy. That’s six billion joules or 1667 kilowatt-hours

If we take 1.7 MWh per barrel for petrol annual automotive energy input is:
Petrol 765 000 MWh per day= 765 GWh per day = 279 000 GWh = 279 TWh

Assuming an efficiency of 20% for a petrol vehicle the energy required for petrol automotive use in Germany is 55.8 TWh per year.

Taking an overall efficiency for an electric vehicle to be 80% (electricity transmission losses, battery charging efficiency) replacing the petrol vehicles with electric vehicles would require 70 TWh per year.

What proportion of the diesel is for automotive use against road or rail transport is not obvious. Suggesting a total of 100TWh for the annual automotive consumption seems reasonable.

If all the diesel consumers were replaced by electric vehicles the annual electricity consumption would increase by around 220 TWh per year.

 Currently Germany produces around 600 TWh of electricity annually.
www.cleanenergywire.org/.../germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts

 Increasing this to 700 TWH to allow for the charging of electric cars is not trivial, nor is the reinforcement of the distribution infrastructure. Increasing to 820 TWh to replace all fossil fuelled transport is probably impossible in the suggested time scales.


Is this a reasonable assessment or have I as usual dropped a 0 somewhere?


Best regards


Roger


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  • Former Community Member
    0 Former Community Member
    Opening up an old post but the IET forum would seem to be the best place to move the discussion forward after a couple of years.

    Some time ago I wondered where all the power was going to come from and how it was going to get distributed, and did some rough estimates. The New Zealand Transport Agency publish annual spreadsheets of all the vehicles registered here. They have very comprehensive details of each vehicle including the engine size and power.



    Taking 2018 as an example (the stats for 2016 and 2017 produce similar results)


    There were 214,000 vehicles of all sizes, scooters to HGV’s registered in NZ in 2018, of which 164,000 were powered, including EV's of various types. The average power of the vehicles was 128Kw. If the average annual mileage is assumed to be 16,000km (10,000 miles) at, say, an average speed of 50km/hr then the average usage is 320hrs/year. Those vehicles aren't going to be driven at full power so let’s say they are driven at 20% of their max power.


    Had all the vehicles been electric that would have been 164,000 vehicles, 128Kw at 20% for 320hrs = 1,343,488 MWh of power consumed per annum. With 8,760 hours in a year that would require a 153MWh power station running 24x7



    New Zealand currently has 5 million vehicles and the government has stated that they are expecting 80% of all the vehicles to be electric by 2050. So 4,000,000/164,000 x 153MWh = 3,732GWh of additional power generation plus the transmission line infrastructure to move the power to where it’s needed.



    The real concern is what is all this going to do to consumer power prices in order to pay for the build the required infrastructure? In the UK the problem must be 10 times that of New Zealand?


    I may be well off the mark here but I can't find any references to any short,medium or long term integrated planning. Just piecemeal solutions and an air of somehow it will all come together.


Reply
  • Former Community Member
    0 Former Community Member
    Opening up an old post but the IET forum would seem to be the best place to move the discussion forward after a couple of years.

    Some time ago I wondered where all the power was going to come from and how it was going to get distributed, and did some rough estimates. The New Zealand Transport Agency publish annual spreadsheets of all the vehicles registered here. They have very comprehensive details of each vehicle including the engine size and power.



    Taking 2018 as an example (the stats for 2016 and 2017 produce similar results)


    There were 214,000 vehicles of all sizes, scooters to HGV’s registered in NZ in 2018, of which 164,000 were powered, including EV's of various types. The average power of the vehicles was 128Kw. If the average annual mileage is assumed to be 16,000km (10,000 miles) at, say, an average speed of 50km/hr then the average usage is 320hrs/year. Those vehicles aren't going to be driven at full power so let’s say they are driven at 20% of their max power.


    Had all the vehicles been electric that would have been 164,000 vehicles, 128Kw at 20% for 320hrs = 1,343,488 MWh of power consumed per annum. With 8,760 hours in a year that would require a 153MWh power station running 24x7



    New Zealand currently has 5 million vehicles and the government has stated that they are expecting 80% of all the vehicles to be electric by 2050. So 4,000,000/164,000 x 153MWh = 3,732GWh of additional power generation plus the transmission line infrastructure to move the power to where it’s needed.



    The real concern is what is all this going to do to consumer power prices in order to pay for the build the required infrastructure? In the UK the problem must be 10 times that of New Zealand?


    I may be well off the mark here but I can't find any references to any short,medium or long term integrated planning. Just piecemeal solutions and an air of somehow it will all come together.


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