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Power networks could struggle by 2030 under soaring electric vehicle popularity ET

There is a lot written regarding the replacement of fossil fuelled (petrol and diesel) cars with electric cars. Some suggest it is easy, others suggest it is impossible. I decided to look briefly at the electricity requirements required to do this (This is based on Germany but I would expect the figures would be similar for the UK).

First step how much petrol and diesel is currently used?

From the IEA
www.iea.org/.../GermanyOSS.pdf
Germany petrol and diesel consumption 2010-2011.
Petrol 450 000 barrels per day
Diesel 1050 000 barrels per day

As a cross check on the total consumption:
world.bymap.org/OilConsumption.html
Total consumption petroleum consumption for Germany 2015
2 372 000 barrels per day

Next step what is the electrical energy equivalent of 1 barrel of Petrol/Diesel? From a couple of sources:

peakoil.com/.../how-much-energy-is-there-in-a-barrel-of-oil
1 barrel (crude) is 1,700 kilowatt hours 

letthesunwork.com/.../barrelofenergy.htm
A barrel of oil contains about six gigajoules of energy. That’s six billion joules or 1667 kilowatt-hours

If we take 1.7 MWh per barrel for petrol annual automotive energy input is:
Petrol 765 000 MWh per day= 765 GWh per day = 279 000 GWh = 279 TWh

Assuming an efficiency of 20% for a petrol vehicle the energy required for petrol automotive use in Germany is 55.8 TWh per year.

Taking an overall efficiency for an electric vehicle to be 80% (electricity transmission losses, battery charging efficiency) replacing the petrol vehicles with electric vehicles would require 70 TWh per year.

What proportion of the diesel is for automotive use against road or rail transport is not obvious. Suggesting a total of 100TWh for the annual automotive consumption seems reasonable.

If all the diesel consumers were replaced by electric vehicles the annual electricity consumption would increase by around 220 TWh per year.

 Currently Germany produces around 600 TWh of electricity annually.
www.cleanenergywire.org/.../germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts

 Increasing this to 700 TWH to allow for the charging of electric cars is not trivial, nor is the reinforcement of the distribution infrastructure. Increasing to 820 TWh to replace all fossil fuelled transport is probably impossible in the suggested time scales.


Is this a reasonable assessment or have I as usual dropped a 0 somewhere?


Best regards


Roger


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  • Mr Malcolm Davies:

    This ongoing discussion about air quality, the demise of nuclear power station, and the urgency to introduce BEVs as part of the solution, is missing some very important questions. E.G. WHY do we need to charge up a 1500 kg BEV every night in order that a 75Kg employee may drive 20 miles to work the next day, when the Telecomms and Data Comms Industry has already solved the problem with ADSL Broadband. If the majority of office workers were to be allowed (in planned stages) by their employers to work remotely from localised Data and TeleComms Centres - built within easy walking, cycling, or public transport distance of their homes, rented out by their employers, then we would solve the air polution issue overnight! (Or within a very few years if we applied ourselves to the transition programme). Clearly, those working in jobs that are essentially 'hands on' (non, fully robotised) e.g. on manufacturing production lines and in goods/food distribution etc would still need to travel to the factory or warehouse.


    Surely, putting between 22KwH (Old Leaf) and 64KWh (New Kona) of mains electricity into a 1500 Kg BEV every night in order to deliver a 75kg 'payload' to work each day is the height of mechanical inefficiency? If we really MUST 'travel electric' then every BEV purchased would necessarily include a 4KW Solar Panel Installation for the owners rooftop. Thus all those who can afford £28k for the BEV plus say £6K for the chinese solar panel installation - are home and dry so to speak.  




     

    Something doesn't add up right there.  The new 64kWh Kona will do over 200 miles on one charge.  Maybe even 250 miles.  If your journey to work each day is 20 miles, you don't have to put in the full 64hWh every night.  Either plug it in every few days, or just give it a quick top up.


    Most EVs get about 4 to 5 miles per kWh.
Reply

  • Mr Malcolm Davies:

    This ongoing discussion about air quality, the demise of nuclear power station, and the urgency to introduce BEVs as part of the solution, is missing some very important questions. E.G. WHY do we need to charge up a 1500 kg BEV every night in order that a 75Kg employee may drive 20 miles to work the next day, when the Telecomms and Data Comms Industry has already solved the problem with ADSL Broadband. If the majority of office workers were to be allowed (in planned stages) by their employers to work remotely from localised Data and TeleComms Centres - built within easy walking, cycling, or public transport distance of their homes, rented out by their employers, then we would solve the air polution issue overnight! (Or within a very few years if we applied ourselves to the transition programme). Clearly, those working in jobs that are essentially 'hands on' (non, fully robotised) e.g. on manufacturing production lines and in goods/food distribution etc would still need to travel to the factory or warehouse.


    Surely, putting between 22KwH (Old Leaf) and 64KWh (New Kona) of mains electricity into a 1500 Kg BEV every night in order to deliver a 75kg 'payload' to work each day is the height of mechanical inefficiency? If we really MUST 'travel electric' then every BEV purchased would necessarily include a 4KW Solar Panel Installation for the owners rooftop. Thus all those who can afford £28k for the BEV plus say £6K for the chinese solar panel installation - are home and dry so to speak.  




     

    Something doesn't add up right there.  The new 64kWh Kona will do over 200 miles on one charge.  Maybe even 250 miles.  If your journey to work each day is 20 miles, you don't have to put in the full 64hWh every night.  Either plug it in every few days, or just give it a quick top up.


    Most EVs get about 4 to 5 miles per kWh.
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