The challenge that we face when discussing how we can utilise the earth's resources in a sensible and environmentally sensitive manner is that it has always been a very emotive issue, and it is becoming increasingly more divisive.  Each side in the debate chooses to deploy emotive language to support their position, whether is be "emergency", "extinction" or "catastrophe", particularly when engaging with members of the public, who do not always understand the full picture.  Nothing we do on the planet comes for free, and we need to consider the systems impact when we discuss potential solutions to the challenges we face.


When we consider transport, it makes sense to decarbonise, and switch from diesel & petrol vehicles over a period of time to higher efficiency battery electric or fuel cell power sources.  However, we must be aware that we are just switching from one extractive industry (oil & gas) to another (mining).  A recent report from the Natural History Museum highlighted that to change the entire UK car fleet (excluding vans and HGV's) to BEV's would require twice the world's annual cobalt production, 75% of world lithium production, 100% of the world's neodymium production and 50% of the world's copper production, just for our small island.  Processing, smelting and transporting those metals would also require 22.5 TWh of energy, equivalent to 6% of UK energy demand.  Charging those vehicles will require a 20% increase in UK electricity generation and distribution capacity, and if renewable electricity sources are chosen to provide that energy, it will require a further years global copper supply, and 10 years worth of global production of neodymium and dysprosium to build the wind farms and reinforce the grid.  Currently, we should also note that the petrol and diesel fleet pay £27 billion each year in fuel duty, and £8 billion a year in vehicle excise duty.  Those revenues will also need to be replaced by the Treasury, or we will have to spend less (unlikely!).


When we consider domestic heating, 85% of the UK housing stock is heated by gas today, around 24 million homes.  To meet a net zero target by 2050, assuming we start within the next 5 years, will require us to convert 1 million homes per year to another form of heating, be that hydrogen boilers, heat pumps, hybrid systems, or direct electric heating.  It can be done, we have done it before in converting from towns gas to north sea gas in the late 60's, early 70's, but that change was mandated, and could be completed quickly, without the type of social media campaigns and protests that are prevalent today.  The UK Committe on Climate Change has estimated that this will cost an additional £15 billion each year between now and 2050, a sum in excess of £300 billion in total.


In summary, this is a change we need to make, but there is no single silver bullet. We need to maximise renewables, we need to reinforce the electricity grid, we need to convert gas heating to hydrogen and maintain the gas grid, we need to decarbonise industry (without losing jobs and importing carbon in products instead), and we need to decarbonise transport.  To achieve this will require massive funding, clear cross party political support to a common trajectory and acceptance that many solutions will be needed, and critically, the support of society in recognising that the transition needs to be made in a way that is both feasible and affordable.

The challenge that we face when discussing how we can utilise the earth's resources in a sensible and environmentally sensitive manner is that it has always been a very emotive issue, and it is becoming increasingly more divisive.  Each side in the debate chooses to deploy emotive language to support their position, whether is be "emergency", "extinction" or "catastrophe", particularly when engaging with members of the public, who do not always understand the full picture.  Nothing we do on the planet comes for free, and we need to consider the systems impact when we discuss potential solutions to the challenges we face.


When we consider transport, it makes sense to decarbonise, and switch from diesel & petrol vehicles over a period of time to higher efficiency battery electric or fuel cell power sources.  However, we must be aware that we are just switching from one extractive industry (oil & gas) to another (mining).  A recent report from the Natural History Museum highlighted that to change the entire UK car fleet (excluding vans and HGV's) to BEV's would require twice the world's annual cobalt production, 75% of world lithium production, 100% of the world's neodymium production and 50% of the world's copper production, just for our small island.  Processing, smelting and transporting those metals would also require 22.5 TWh of energy, equivalent to 6% of UK energy demand.  Charging those vehicles will require a 20% increase in UK electricity generation and distribution capacity, and if renewable electricity sources are chosen to provide that energy, it will require a further years global copper supply, and 10 years worth of global production of neodymium and dysprosium to build the wind farms and reinforce the grid.  Currently, we should also note that the petrol and diesel fleet pay £27 billion each year in fuel duty, and £8 billion a year in vehicle excise duty.  Those revenues will also need to be replaced by the Treasury, or we will have to spend less (unlikely!).


When we consider domestic heating, 85% of the UK housing stock is heated by gas today, around 24 million homes.  To meet a net zero target by 2050, assuming we start within the next 5 years, will require us to convert 1 million homes per year to another form of heating, be that hydrogen boilers, heat pumps, hybrid systems, or direct electric heating.  It can be done, we have done it before in converting from towns gas to north sea gas in the late 60's, early 70's, but that change was mandated, and could be completed quickly, without the type of social media campaigns and protests that are prevalent today.  The UK Committe on Climate Change has estimated that this will cost an additional £15 billion each year between now and 2050, a sum in excess of £300 billion in total.


In summary, this is a change we need to make, but there is no single silver bullet. We need to maximise renewables, we need to reinforce the electricity grid, we need to convert gas heating to hydrogen and maintain the gas grid, we need to decarbonise industry (without losing jobs and importing carbon in products instead), and we need to decarbonise transport.  To achieve this will require massive funding, clear cross party political support to a common trajectory and acceptance that many solutions will be needed, and critically, the support of society in recognising that the transition needs to be made in a way that is both feasible and affordable.