This discussion has been locked.
You can no longer post new replies to this discussion. If you have a question you can start a new discussion

No Climate Emergency

This doesn't seem to appear in the Daily Mail or the BBC, I wonder why:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/sep/29/scientists-tell-un-global-climate-summit-no-emerge/

There is no climate emergency
A global network of 500 scientists and professionals has prepared this urgent message. Climate
science should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific. Scientists should
openly address the uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global warming, while
politicians should dispassionately count the real benefits as well as the imagined costs of adaptation
to global warming, and the real costs as well as the imagined benefits of mitigation.
Natural as well as anthropogenic factors cause warming
The geological archive reveals that Earth’s climate has varied as long as the planet has existed, with
natural cold and warm phases. The Little Ice Age ended as recently as 1850. Therefore, it is no
surprise that we now are experiencing a period of warming.
Warming is far slower than predicted
The world has warmed at less than half the originally-predicted rate, and at less than half the rate to
be expected on the basis of net anthropogenic forcing and radiative imbalance. It tells us that we are
far from understanding climate change.
Climate policy relies on inadequate models
Climate models have many shortcomings and are not remotely plausible as policy tools. Moreover,
they most likely exaggerate the effect of greenhouse gases such as CO2. In addition, they ignore the
fact that enriching the atmosphere with CO2 is beneficial.
CO2 is plant food, the basis of all life on Earth
CO2 is not a pollutant. It is essential to all life on Earth. Photosynthesis is a blessing. More CO2 is
beneficial for nature, greening the Earth: additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global
plant biomass. It is also good for agriculture, increasing the yields of crops worldwide.
Global warming has not increased natural disasters
There is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying hurricanes, floods, droughts and
suchlike natural disasters, or making them more frequent. However, CO2-mitigation measures are as
damaging as they are costly. For instance, wind turbines kill birds and bats, and palm-oil plantations
destroy the biodiversity of the rainforests.
Climate policy must respect scientific and economic realities
There is no climate emergency. Therefore, there is no cause for panic and alarm. We strongly
oppose the harmful and unrealistic net-zero CO2 policy proposed for 2050. If better approaches
emerge, we will have ample time to reflect and adapt. The aim of international policy should be to
provide reliable and affordable energy at all times, and throughout the world.

https://clintel.nl/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/ecd-letter-to-un.pdf


At last some people talking sense. After the relatively rapid rise of around 1°C between 1975 and 2000 in the Northern Hemisphere the temperatures have been relatively flat.

f95f77dc1ad4c0ab15046a656ee22cae-huge-hadcrut.jpg

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/figures/Figure11.png


We certainly need to reduce our consumption of finite resources and reduce our impact on the planet but focusing on CO2 is not the way to do it. Let's start with real pollutants that are directly harmful.


Best regards


Roger
  • If this is the best that Cambridge can do I am shocked. How can they do most of this? It will need an army of millions of men to prevent the population doing what they want. The interesting point is that they do agree with me that Electricity generation capacity will have to triple by 2050, although they seem to think that this will provide a continuous supply, as although storage is mentioned they do not think of how or the cost. The fact that none of this is costed is my worry, but it certainly is many trillions of pounds. A strange thing is there is no mention of how they get India and China to cut in the same way. Realistically ignoring everything else, what is the point, even using the figures they use it would not make more than a few, perhaps 10 or 20, milli-degrees difference anyway!
  • davezawadi‍ ref your Feb 19, 2020 7:23 pm : to be super pedantic, the pole count (for phasing etc) doesn't have to be that of the _rotating_ part. IIRC Most really big generators are 'inverted' such that the big output windings are on the (static) stator, while the rotor (rotating part) only has a DC drive (rectified) from an exciter further down the driven shaft. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excitation_(magnetic)). (remembered from working at NEI Parsons in '79-80..).


    As you say, there can be more than two poles (1 pair) in the generator.

  • Roger Bryant:

    The key points missing are actual resource requirements and costs.




    Alasdair Anderson‍ said : Not feasible. There is too much food (and other goods) transported by shipping to phase all shipping out in 30 years.


    Death of the species isn't on such programme management scales - cost is a socially decided thing, so once society has broken down, because many ports and airports are likely to have flooded, then we are all (those remaining) back to groats and tithes (figuratively).


    Part of the problem is the rhetoric, and some failure to join the science (scientific knowledge and understanding) to the engineering competences, where we can often forget (historically) the health and safety effects of e.g. mill lades (dead children floating in them) and their successor safety problems. We fail to appreciate the timescales and consequences for these 'big' issues.


    Just what makes something an "emergency"?

    Consider whether calling an ambulance (UK:999) for a small discovered spot on your arm because it might be cancerous, and may grow and then you will die from it. Is it an 'emergency' and if it's not, how long can you avoid it for, especially if all your friends have a similar spot. The centralisation of "Accident and Emergency" was misunderstood by the public. Often they should have been going to the 'Minor injuries units', or their GP for the appropriate level of 'timely' service. The 'Climate emergency' has similar problems. There are those who think that everything must be done 'now', and those that think everything can be delayed till the effects are really patent. Neither is a good balance.


    There is time. It's like saving for a pension. If you start early, with steady commitment, you will make the saving. If you don't keep up the steady savings you will have a poor outcome. It it's the planet that needs the pension, hence...

     


  • mapj1:


    Potted enough Simon ?



     




    Cheers.  I thought it had to be something like that.

  • Former Community Member
    0 Former Community Member
    Anyway the Renewable Energy Route is going on all over the world.and this also means that something to fight climate change is being to be done.
    https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/energy/sponsorstory/wildhorse-mountain-wind-facility-oklahoma-operational
    https://www.imeche.org/news/news-article/dolphyn-project-gets-3.1m-for-offshore-wind-powered-hydrogen-production?utm_campaign=PE%20newsletter%2C%2021%20February&utm_source=email&utm_medium=PE%20Newsletter
  • Philip

    Of course they can (and usually are) inverted. But the post with 6 poles is incorrect and needs to be put right. The concept of poles is central to all electrical machines as I am sure you know, but the design of the rotating element for alternators is fairly complex to give good output waveforms. In all cases the poles have nothing to do with the number of output windings, be it one or three or more. It is how many magnetic poles pass a single output winding per second which set the frequency for an alternator, so 2 poles, ( 1 pair) X 3000 RPM / 60 seconds = 50Hz.

  • Roger Bryant:

    An interesting report from Cambridge University on how to reach zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. No flying, no shipping.

    5c2110decce902657271d12b0504de16-huge-absolute-zero.jpg


    The key points missing are actual resource requirements and costs. Otherwise it's a bit like an updated 'Without the Hot Air'

    https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/1810/299414/Absolute-Zero-digital-280120-v2.pdf?sequence=6&isAllowed=y


    Is it feasible? Do we need to do it?


    Best regards


    Roger


     




    Yes, this is a really interesting challenge for the engineering profession. Worth reading through the report - what they are saying is that with current technology net zero by 2050 is impractical, so their interest is in how we can develop the technologies and other solutions required.


    Although that said, I particularly liked their summary in the introduction:



     We need to discuss these challenges as a society. Making progress on climate change requires that the three key groups of players - government, businesses and individuals - work together, rather than waiting for the other two to act first. But until we face up to the fact that breakthrough technologies won’t arrive fast enough, we can’t even begin having the right discussion.



    But despite the "breakthrough technologies won’t arrive fast enough" statement (which may or may not be true, that's a bit up to us) giving up doesn't seem to be a sensible option.


    Cheers,


    Andy

  • Mike, I do not really agree with your potted analysis.


    The major point of this paper is that the suggestion of a "greenhouse gas" is thermodynamicaly incorrect. It is not possible for a cold object (CO2) in the atmosphere to make the earth surface warmer than itself. Heat (energy) always flows from hot to cold increasing the system entropy. The atmosphere has a tiny thermal capacity compared to the earth surface (to any tiny depth you choose) and also has a powerful mechanism that any heat in it tends to go up, so hot CO2 rises (and all the other gases) meaning that the surface heats the atmosphere, not the other way around. Conduction and convection are much stronger processes in the atmosphere than radiation, because of the very small temperature differences between components. The whole analysis of this blanket diagram and thought pattern is a deliberate attempt to confuse the situation, or possibly just straight incompetence. If CO2 were as is suggested we should fill our double glazing with it, but we do not because its major property is high thermal conductivity! If it radiated half the heat back into the house, would that not be wonderful? Instead we use Argon (in the best windows anyway) because it has particularly low conductivity and is fairly common at 1% of the atmosphere. Of course a vacuum would be ideal but is a problem to keep sealed.


    The reason that nights are cooler than days is because radiation is moving from the surface to the sky which is pretty much at absolute zero temperature. Clouds block this radiation and have a high heat capacity and a temperature which is much higher than the sky, so there is much less radiative heat loss overall, and the atmosphere stays warmer. Water vapour has a much larger greenhouse effect (if you want to call it that) than CO2 and is much more abundant, but seems if anything to cause cooling, which I see as a major objection to the whole description of the atmosphere!


    you will not enjoy the embedded video here
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/gore-and-bill-nye-fail-at-doing-a-simple-co2-experiment/
  • We need to be careful by what we mean by temperature when we are talking about diffuse gasses. The kinetic energy of the gas is low, so if you waved a thermometer out of a slow moving airship, it would read cold - we know this from planes icing up.

    But the excitation of the states that correspond to infra red absorption may still be pretty well populated, so the sky may be 'hot' over a restricted range of wavelengths.

    There is an analogous effect in ionised gasses, where the electrons are not just jigging about a bit, but are actually puled off completely.

    The plasma temperature may be thousands, and indeed the radiation spectrum looks  as if it is, but the gas temperature is nothing like this - the excited states are pumped up by absorbing a photon, and give out a photon when they relax, but the coupling between that mode of electron re-arrangement/excitation and the kinetic energy associated with bulk temperature is so weak that there are two nearly independent mechanisms.

    If you prefer a solid state example, an LED may have a colour temp of a few thousand kelvin, but the die temperature is not much above room temperature.


    An infra red camera view of the sky is not that it is dark and cold, rather that is is hot at some wavelengths and not others.


    It is not a black body, more of a colourful one.
  • You have very effectively outlined why the theory is false Mike. If a molecule was actually at a higher temperature its excess energy would rapidly diffuse throughout the atmosphere by conduction, particularly if the excited molecules had a very low concentration of 400 PPM, and the gasses are powerfully mixed all the time. In fact this theory actually requires that unless mixed molecules have the same absorption bands they cannot pass heat between them, which is false. Gases must be seen as bulk effect environments in the same way as solids. Atmospheric temperature is a bulk effect, any hotter or cooler volumes must rapidly be equalised by normal convective processes.