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Going green

Chris Pearson
The debate in another thread has shifted to the climate debate, so perhaps we should keep it separate.


Publication bias may be detected by what I think is called a funnel plot. Imagine a funnel lying on its side.


On the X-axis, you have the power of the study - high powered studies are nearer to the truth so they lie in the stem of the funnel.


On the Y-axis you have the finding of each study - whether the activity is beneficial or not. The middle of the neck of the funnel is the best estimate of the true value.


At the left of the plot, the wide bit of the funnel, lie low powered studies. Some will show that the activity is beneficial, some the reverse. So if you look at the risk of smoking, some low powered studies should have shown that it was beneficial. IIRC, studies showing that smoking was beneficial were not published. That may be because the authors chose not to submit, or editors chose not to accept.


I have no idea whether this sort of plot has been done for the climate debate, but it ought to have been.


I accept David Z's argument that the climate has warmed and cooled long before industry appeared (even on a Roman scale), but what bugs me is the doctrine that we cannot afford to get it wrong.


Does anybody here know how man-made energy compares with the amount which arrives from the sun?
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    Interesting idea Simon, but you won't do too well in the winter when the sun is dim and it is cold, I assume that your "wonder figure" includes your hot water, cooking etc. Well perhaps not. So I deduce you live alone, are quite well off, and have a gas supply and combi-boiler, and pobably take all your meals away from home. You are going to find the "Green Deal" really challenging whren you gas supply is removed!


    I am quite supicious of those figures which I will check later, simply because solar has a utilisation factor of about 20% and wind about 25% of nameplate capcity. How much of this number is domestic solar installation estimates, as this can be significant but is usually disappointing in anywhere North of London for obvious reasons. Salesmen are very good at selling unworkable things to the public, and many results banded about are from California which has an entirely different climate from the UK.


    The rating capacity of wind turbines against actual output is discussed on Wattsupwiththat.com in detail if you look at the archives, or the conference I referenced above.


    I note that several of the large wind companies are not investing further (eg Innogy), because return on investment is too low now that subsidies have been cut, and maintenance costs in Germany are proving crippling. It was all driven by subsidy money which you and I have paid without representation.
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    Interesting idea Simon, but you won't do too well in the winter when the sun is dim and it is cold, I assume that your "wonder figure" includes your hot water, cooking etc. Well perhaps not. So I deduce you live alone, are quite well off, and have a gas supply and combi-boiler, and pobably take all your meals away from home. You are going to find the "Green Deal" really challenging whren you gas supply is removed!


    I am quite supicious of those figures which I will check later, simply because solar has a utilisation factor of about 20% and wind about 25% of nameplate capcity. How much of this number is domestic solar installation estimates, as this can be significant but is usually disappointing in anywhere North of London for obvious reasons. Salesmen are very good at selling unworkable things to the public, and many results banded about are from California which has an entirely different climate from the UK.


    The rating capacity of wind turbines against actual output is discussed on Wattsupwiththat.com in detail if you look at the archives, or the conference I referenced above.


    I note that several of the large wind companies are not investing further (eg Innogy), because return on investment is too low now that subsidies have been cut, and maintenance costs in Germany are proving crippling. It was all driven by subsidy money which you and I have paid without representation.
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