Goodbye Old King Coal Generation.

Simon Barker:

Electric vehicles cost a lot more up-front, but then cost rather less to run.  Diesel is expensive, and if you get properly tried and tested vehicles, the maintenance costs will be lower.


But ultimately, pretending that there isn't a problem doesn't make it go away.  If there is a hole in your roof, you can't pretend it's not there, even if it will be expensive to get a roofer in to fix it.  And sticking buckets down will only work for so long before your ceilings start to collapse.


If even a Conservative government under Boris Johnson thinks there is a problem, then it's safe to assume it's not just some conspiracy theory dreamt up by a number of left-wing greenies.


And it's not the greens who pretend that the World has infinite resources.

 

 

Lets look at the decision making process here:


I manage a bus company that delivers a transport service with a price and reliability that tempts people out of their private cars and into my buses reducing traffic congestion. I decide I want to reduce my impact on the planet what do I have to consider?


If I increase the prices or reduce the reliability more people will use private cars which defeats the object.


What technologies are available to me?

Trolley buses: Where does the electricity come from? If it is from burning fossil fuels I should probably stick with diesel buses. If it is from renewable sources how do I guarantee the supply? If it is not reliable people won't use my buses. There is a large investment required in infrastructure (poles, wires, switch gear etc). There will be objections to the installation of this infrastructure. They are inflexible (temporary route changes are difficult and expensive) so will require a back up fleet that does not require overhead wires. This solution may be valid on routes with a high traffic density.

Battery buses: Where does the electricity come from? If it is from burning fossil fuels I should probably stick with diesel buses. Straight solar is no use as I need to charge the batteries at night. I could use a second set of batteries that are charged during the day but that increases the costs and requires additional infrastructure for battery exchange and storage. Is wind reliable enough for my service? What is the real world range of the buses on my routes with hills etc. How much is the range reduced by the 'hotel' load (heating, aircon, etc). What is the real battery life? 1000 cycles is less than 3 years of daily operation. How much more expensive are battery buses than diesel buses?

Bio gas buses: Where do I source the gas? If it is from the composting of local waste products that sounds good. How much is available, so how much of my fleet can I convert? How much more expensive are gas engined buses than diesel buses? Will the engines run on fossil sourced gas in an emergency or do I need back up diesel buses?


If you were managing a bus company that has to make a profit to survive and supply a service to tempt people to use it rather than the alternatives how would your thinking go? Would you demand government (taxpayer's) subsidies? Would you, like the Germans, choose to use expensive electricity that frequently comes from dirty fossil fuel sources (brown coal) to support your virtue signaling?


Best regards


Roger

Simon Barker:

Electric vehicles cost a lot more up-front, but then cost rather less to run.  Diesel is expensive, and if you get properly tried and tested vehicles, the maintenance costs will be lower.


But ultimately, pretending that there isn't a problem doesn't make it go away.  If there is a hole in your roof, you can't pretend it's not there, even if it will be expensive to get a roofer in to fix it.  And sticking buckets down will only work for so long before your ceilings start to collapse.


If even a Conservative government under Boris Johnson thinks there is a problem, then it's safe to assume it's not just some conspiracy theory dreamt up by a number of left-wing greenies.


And it's not the greens who pretend that the World has infinite resources.

 

 

Lets look at the decision making process here:


I manage a bus company that delivers a transport service with a price and reliability that tempts people out of their private cars and into my buses reducing traffic congestion. I decide I want to reduce my impact on the planet what do I have to consider?


If I increase the prices or reduce the reliability more people will use private cars which defeats the object.


What technologies are available to me?

Trolley buses: Where does the electricity come from? If it is from burning fossil fuels I should probably stick with diesel buses. If it is from renewable sources how do I guarantee the supply? If it is not reliable people won't use my buses. There is a large investment required in infrastructure (poles, wires, switch gear etc). There will be objections to the installation of this infrastructure. They are inflexible (temporary route changes are difficult and expensive) so will require a back up fleet that does not require overhead wires. This solution may be valid on routes with a high traffic density.

Battery buses: Where does the electricity come from? If it is from burning fossil fuels I should probably stick with diesel buses. Straight solar is no use as I need to charge the batteries at night. I could use a second set of batteries that are charged during the day but that increases the costs and requires additional infrastructure for battery exchange and storage. Is wind reliable enough for my service? What is the real world range of the buses on my routes with hills etc. How much is the range reduced by the 'hotel' load (heating, aircon, etc). What is the real battery life? 1000 cycles is less than 3 years of daily operation. How much more expensive are battery buses than diesel buses?

Bio gas buses: Where do I source the gas? If it is from the composting of local waste products that sounds good. How much is available, so how much of my fleet can I convert? How much more expensive are gas engined buses than diesel buses? Will the engines run on fossil sourced gas in an emergency or do I need back up diesel buses?


If you were managing a bus company that has to make a profit to survive and supply a service to tempt people to use it rather than the alternatives how would your thinking go? Would you demand government (taxpayer's) subsidies? Would you, like the Germans, choose to use expensive electricity that frequently comes from dirty fossil fuel sources (brown coal) to support your virtue signaling?


Best regards


Roger