Keep calm and carry on!


It's all about balancing the risks against the cost - social and mental, not just financial


In UK we currently have about 2000 confirmed cases i.e. poorly people. The doubling time is about 2.7 days, or put another way, the increase has been an order of magnitude every 9 days or so (Log₁₀ 2 = 0.3, x 9 = 2.7). So if the rate of exponential growth does not change (it hasn't convincingly done so yet) we will have 1,000,000 cases on or about Good Friday (10 April, 24 days from now). You can multiply by 2, 3, or whatever to include the mild cases. If 10% of the poorly people need ITU, you can see that NHS will not cope, so the aim is to slow down the spread, particularly amongst those at greatest risk.


The risk of picking up an infection is currently low, but unless anything dramatic happens, I can see closures on a continental scale after a couple of weekends from now.


I feel sorry for flight crews, cooks and waiters, and the owners of the businesses. For many people, no work - no pay. So I think that it is reasonable to work for the next 10 days or so. Clearly not if you catch a cold, or if your clients are unwell.


Mrs P falls into the vulnerable category. The only room which we both have to use is the kitchen, but I find it inconceivable that I could catch Covid19 and not pass it on to her. In any event, as pointed out above, the frail population will have to emerge at some stage. As far as I can tell, there is no expectation that they will be spared - it's just that there will be enough ITU beds to go around. If we are very very lucky, a vaccine may be developed in the mean time.

Keep calm and carry on!


It's all about balancing the risks against the cost - social and mental, not just financial


In UK we currently have about 2000 confirmed cases i.e. poorly people. The doubling time is about 2.7 days, or put another way, the increase has been an order of magnitude every 9 days or so (Log₁₀ 2 = 0.3, x 9 = 2.7). So if the rate of exponential growth does not change (it hasn't convincingly done so yet) we will have 1,000,000 cases on or about Good Friday (10 April, 24 days from now). You can multiply by 2, 3, or whatever to include the mild cases. If 10% of the poorly people need ITU, you can see that NHS will not cope, so the aim is to slow down the spread, particularly amongst those at greatest risk.


The risk of picking up an infection is currently low, but unless anything dramatic happens, I can see closures on a continental scale after a couple of weekends from now.


I feel sorry for flight crews, cooks and waiters, and the owners of the businesses. For many people, no work - no pay. So I think that it is reasonable to work for the next 10 days or so. Clearly not if you catch a cold, or if your clients are unwell.


Mrs P falls into the vulnerable category. The only room which we both have to use is the kitchen, but I find it inconceivable that I could catch Covid19 and not pass it on to her. In any event, as pointed out above, the frail population will have to emerge at some stage. As far as I can tell, there is no expectation that they will be spared - it's just that there will be enough ITU beds to go around. If we are very very lucky, a vaccine may be developed in the mean time.