What are we going to do about the COVID-2X and COVID-3X World wide Pandemics?

Hello Clive:


Tonight I down loaded a report by the Royal Society titled "The SARS-CoV-2 Genome: variation, implication and Application" dated 26 August 2020 . It indicted that at the present time the virus is relatively stable.


I also saw a report that it will take at least 4 years to vaccinate everyone in the world. 


Every day I look at my county's COVID-19 dashboard and it shows that the age group with the largest number of positive tests is the 15-24 year old's.  


From a scientific point of view we need testing to indicate what happened in our local area ten days ago -- infections were  stable, going up or going down. Based on that data we can (for example) close the pubs or beaches. 


However from a personal perspective I do not plan to get tested even if I can get the results within one hour, if I do not have any symptoms.


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay Florida USA

Thanks Peter,

It might be of scientific interest to know what happened 10 days ago but at what cost???   The point I am making is that we need to obtain herd immunity as soon as possible; not keep putting it off,  prevaricating endlessly on lockdown arrangements. 

This flu' virus is a problem and older people in particular must take Swedish precautions but not this economically suicidal panic measures that western governments are insisting on.

Hello Clive:


Are you old enough to remember the Polio outbreak? Some people who were placed in iron lungs and survived it, are still having residual medical problems today. 


I remember a well built young engineer where I worked, getting polio and coming back to work some 8-12 months later in a wheelchair. 


We are already hearing about some people who had COVID-19 having long term problems with their lungs, heart and brains. Will they get Alzheimer's in 20-30 years?


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay Florida USA

People over the age of 80 could die at any time and should not be counted in Covid19 deaths in my opinion.  However, they may have to go into hospital and use up an NHS bed which is unfortunate but an acceptable risk.  What is not acceptable is government interfering with young and working peoples lives just to protect themselves from criticism. 

Sweden shows the way on how to get people informed and encourages them to be safe.  We do not need heavy handed administrations dreaming up rules please.

The Swedish case is very interesting - not so long ago they were being berated as reckless as their no of cases stayed higher than their neighbours.

However, they are not seeing any sort of second upturn yet.

It may be that they have indeed demonstrated the true cost/ benefit  of herd immunity for this virus, and it may well have been a better model than a  lock-down in some cases. But we will not know for sure for a long time.

 

But coming back to the OP even when we do understand the best way to approach C19, we cannot know the lethality or the contagion factors for the next pandemic and re-fighting the last battle may not work so well.


Imagine if you will a mutated version that spreads more like measles (un moderated R number 10-12, rather than about 3) and a high lethality more like say Ebola - to put it politely we'd be stuffed if we  approached a virus like  that in a herd immunity way.... Mind you we'd probably not fare so well in a lock-down either...

Equally a degree of fatalism is not a new idea nor is it a bad thing - for millennia humans have lived with their own mortal nature and incorporated it into their social patterns - hence bronze age burial mounds and so on.

We probably need to wake up to the fact the we are still not really omnipotent over nature. And in the meantime stop building open plan offices and large shops, they will be as obsolete as the horn gramophone and film photography  in a few years, a passing fad, something we did for a short time in the 20th century..

Hello Clive:


I found this interesting article about COVID-19 testing problems tonight at the following URL:-

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88612?xid=nl_popmed_2020-09-17&eun=g410974d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PopMedicine-Winner_091720&utm_content=Final&utm_term=NL_Gen_Int_PopMedicine_Active


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay, Florida USA

Thanks Peter,

I can see you prefer full item results to study the virus.  But does identification of the number of carriers help your family or next door neighbours 10 days later.  The article stated 

   "In any event, boosting production of test supplies at a linear rate gives us little hope of matching the demand of unchecked virus spread. The pandemic will not be ended simply by producing more test technology."  

So we need a vaccine now, immediately, or we go for herd immunity, letting nature take its normal course and letting God decide who lives and dies as usual.

Hello Clive:

Here is another method for determining the arrival of COVID-19 in ones local area. It has the advantage of being a better leading indicator for the pandemic. I remember that some solid sewage testing was conducted in Spain but I could never get my hands on any research paper with their results. It should be noted that it tests for SARS-CoV-2 RNA and samples must be stored at -80 C. Reference to -80 C reminds me that two of the potential mRNA vaccines also must be stored at this temperature.

  
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-020-0684-z


I also saw another COVID-19 related published medical letter yesterday that highlights that the testing swab can be be placed in the wrong part of the nose creating a false negative result. It should NOT be guided using the top of the nose but slid down the bottom.


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay Florida USA

Hello Clive:


I found the URL for the JAMA article about correctly placing the testing swab up one's nose:- 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaotolaryngology/fullarticle/2770786?utm_source=silverchair&utm_campaign=jama_network&utm_content=covid_weekly_highlights&utm_medium=email


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay Florida USA