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What are we going to do about the COVID-2X and COVID-3X World wide Pandemics?

The big question is how society is going to change as multiple waves of COVID-19 and new viruses appear over the next 20 years.


Business models supporting sharing of physical objects appear to be in jeopardy (example "ride sharing" transportation). 


Peter Brooks MIET

Palm Bay Florida USA
  • Hello Clive:


    Here is another topic concerning the use of COVID-19 vaccine when it is developed - This JAMA paper asks the question "Should it be made mandatory for children, before they are allowed to start school ?"

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2770123?utm_source=silverchair&utm_campaign=jama_network&utm_content=covid_weekly_highlights&utm_medium=email


    On another topic looking at the Telegraph newspaper this morning, (which has a picture of the PM wearing a "hard hat") all I could think of was the words to the children song:- "The Grand old Duke of York"!.

    - (looking it up my sources uses the words "the lyrics have become proverbial for futile action").


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay Florida USA
  • CliveS:

    Thanks Peter,

    I can see you prefer full item results to study the virus.  But does identification of the number of carriers help your family or next door neighbours 10 days later.  The article stated 

       "In any event, boosting production of test supplies at a linear rate gives us little hope of matching the demand of unchecked virus spread. The pandemic will not be ended simply by producing more test technology."  

    So we need a vaccine now, immediately, or we go for herd immunity, letting nature take its normal course and letting God decide who lives and dies as usual.


    I suspect a large number of people, unlike you, actually care if thousands of people die.


    The tests in the UK should be delivering results in 24 hours.  They aren't t the moment, which the government needs to sort out.  If we can get it down to a day or two, then people with symptoms - and people who have been exposed to others who have the virus - only need to take a day or two off work.  If they are clear, they can go back to work, school or wherever again.


  • Hello Clive:

    Lets talk about Death for the current and future COVID pandemics. It is a fact, that death is in everyone's future but we just don't know when it will happen - I call it ones "sell by date".


    The current pandemic has produced an excess of deaths of all ages over a normal (non pandemic) time frame. It can be considered as an accelerator, in that any one person with existing conditions (example diabetes or congestive heart failure) or working in a risky area (nurses or doctors) may have their expected life span reduced.


    Some people have suggested that the criteria for determining COVID-19 deaths should be counting the number of "additional" deaths over say that experienced last year (2019).  However it has been recently reported that the number of flu deaths in the southern hemisphere for this (2020) year has declined because of the COVID-19 preventative measures - social distances and use of masks), or traffic accidents due to the country lock down. 


    When death happens suddenly (as in a pandemic) to all ages, it is frequently found that an individual did not have the necessary legal document (wills trust etc) or directions concerning their body (burial, cremation or what).


    I would like to suggest that a UK law be created that every person who is defined as an adult (for the UK that would be 18 and up) must have a copy of all these legal papers on file at (say) Kew. It would also required it to be revised as life events happen (marriage, children etc). 


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay Florida USA


     

  • Thanks Peter,

    It would be nice if everyone made a will as it would shop legal arguments. Possibly the state should declare that people dying interstate will be cremated, their body organs donated to the NHS and assets sold up to fund the government shortfall in revenue due to Covid 19.  I predict that most people would make sure they had a will favouring their nearest relative PDQ.

    But such window dressing is off the point which is we must get back to normal immediately and if the NHS get all  their Nightingale beds filled up THEN will be the time for government to act; possibly by prioritising ICU beds to people under retirement age. but not by stupid lockdowns which stop herd immunity being attained.

    And what happens when the virus mutates to Covid 20, Back to the starting point no vaccine, experts panic; government lockdown? I don't think so!!


  • Hello Clive:-


    Actually my comment about the need for a "last will and testament", also extends to some other legal documents (examples: Healthcare surrogate and living will, revocable trust, durable power of attorney).


    It is my understanding that solders being sent into battle during the great wars were required to create their wills.  


    Regarding dying intestate- I read recently that the estate of people's dying intestate in a certain part(s) of Cornwell, are automatically forwarded to Prince Charles (Duke of Cornwell) and not the UK government.


    I am of the opinion that going back to normal (pre COVID-19 pandemic) will never happen. There will a number of major events (besides waves of pandemics), that will drastically change life as we know it over the next 50 years. 


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay Florida USA


  • Hello Clive:


    You mentioned organ harvesting as a possible option for people who died (mainly seniors) from COVID-19.


    Pre-pandemic, I happen to have had a  discussion with a local Heart doctor who has the job of examining people who have recently died in our hospital and he stated that in "seniors" there are very very few that meet the transplant criteria.


    Recent research papers on post-mortems conducted on people of" all ages" who died from COVID-19, have highlight the tremendous amount of damage done to most of their organs.


    So this does not appear to be a viable option. 


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay Florida USA
  • Hello:


    In a couple of these comments, reference has been made to the model used by Sweden to handle the COVID-19 pandemic.


    My first question is to ask "Why can't there be multiple ways to successfully handle the pandemic"? 


    What makes England so different from Sweden?

    My conclusion is that the English lack social discipline. They haven't had it in the past and I fear they never will, at least while the pubs remain open.


    For examples look at the 1700's as shown by William Hogarth in his engraving "Gin Lane." or the movie "Easy Street" by Charlie Chaplin (taken from his experience living in London in the early 1900) or look at the recent newspaper pictures of the young people coming out of the pubs.


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay Florida USA 

  • I share your dismay Peter, in fact you are being too polite to say that the English lack social discipline. We seem to have evolved into a society that believes that you can create 'real' lasting wealth and value out of thin air and that our individual 'human rights' are considerably more important than our public duties and responsibilities. Powerful global corporations have become successful at brain washing us into 'buying in' to the need to be covetous and selfish, caring more about keeping up with our peers and the acquisition of visible 'showy' material possiessions rather than the pursuit of more worthy causes. The words of Desiderata written by Max Ehrman spring to mind.



    There must indeed be many ways of dealing with these pandemics. One only has to look at how S.Korea and New Zealand have performed for examples of good practice. It remains to be seen whether Sweden's apparent adoption of its more measured (herd immunity) policy will turn out to be quantitatively better than the Central European path. As you originally asked, how do we intend to deal with similar pandemics in future - especially after all the 'learning' that can now be derived from our present and ongoing difficulties. The larger questions of 'wealth inequality' will always be present and if nothing else, this pandemic has highlighted much that is wrong with our 'western democracy based' societies. Ultimately, it must come down to learning from bitter experience and much better education and motivational training. Just imagine what could be achieved if each Senior Citizen were to adopt an apprentice, to whom many years of wisdom, career guidance and skill could be given ! A University education may be ok for some but surely an apprenticeship offers far more potential for 'the majority' with the opportunity of further formal study always still available should the chosen career path/employer require it.     


  • Hello Malcolm:


    Strange that you mentioned South Korea in your response. The last paid job I had was working for a Korean company here in the US.


    From time to time I had to visit their manufacturing plants in South Korea.


    They had this practice of never firing engineers or managers but effectively "Sent them to Coventry" by assigning them to a cupboard with a chair and desk and no one ever spoke to them.


    My boss (a US citizen) had to join the family that owned the company by having to kiss the ring of the highest ruling member of the clan.


    They have a cruel culture, where an individual was always of secondary importance to the needs of the whole group.


    This may explain how they responded to the pandemic.


    Peter Brooks MIET

    Palm Bay, Florida USA 


     



  • Ouch ! There I was, thinking and beleiveing (gullible?) that the South Korean excellence in world class research into Fusion Technology, Plasma Bottles etc plus their steady progress into becoming world class designers and manufacturers of affordable, reliable, motor cars - already outselling Honda cars 4 to 1 in Europe in 2017, etc plus an alleged enlightened (if not actually fully supportive) tolerance of Religious Freedoms (Christianity etc), unheard of in North Korea - were all good indications of a healthy society who fully embrace the benefit of high grade education and attention to detail and 'continous improvement' (first proposed by Edwards Demming from the USA in the 60s whose ideas were firmly rejected by all Western/US Corporations but fully embrcaed by Japanese Auto makers) in product design - apparently/allegedly - as good things.


    Maybe there is a happy medium (or median) between the cruel extremes in S.Korea and the lax permissiveness in our Western Societies?