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Will HS2 Fail or Succeed?

Dave Perton
I believe it will do both, it just depends on the measure you use. In an project there are three measures of success or failure, cost, time-scale and outcome and I believe it will fail on two but succeed on the most important and have set out my argument in a blog post here https://communities.theiet.org/groups/blogpost/view/27/231/6920


The project is so complex to think costs will not overrun or timing slip is to be naive, as it is impossible to predict them when the timescales are so long and the complexity so great, but the outcome will be a success
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    Day returns?  Weekend returns?  Mid-week returns?  Remember them?


    Time was when ticket prices were published and stable. One knew in advance just how much a train journey would cost.


    Nowadays it is a case of pick the time and find the price offered. It makes no difference whether you buy your ticket on-line or go to the ticket office and buy it from a real person. You can't even be sure of the route you will take for your journey. Example: Hampshire to Cambridgeshire. Via Waterloo and King's Cross? Or via Paddington and King's Cross? The system seems to find the less-busy routes and offer cheaper fares to suite. Maybe not a bad thing!


    But if one can't predict the price of a rail ticket, one can hardly expect the predict the price of a massive project like HS2.
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  • 0
    Day returns?  Weekend returns?  Mid-week returns?  Remember them?


    Time was when ticket prices were published and stable. One knew in advance just how much a train journey would cost.


    Nowadays it is a case of pick the time and find the price offered. It makes no difference whether you buy your ticket on-line or go to the ticket office and buy it from a real person. You can't even be sure of the route you will take for your journey. Example: Hampshire to Cambridgeshire. Via Waterloo and King's Cross? Or via Paddington and King's Cross? The system seems to find the less-busy routes and offer cheaper fares to suite. Maybe not a bad thing!


    But if one can't predict the price of a rail ticket, one can hardly expect the predict the price of a massive project like HS2.
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