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Will HS2 Fail or Succeed?

I believe it will do both, it just depends on the measure you use. In an project there are three measures of success or failure, cost, time-scale and outcome and I believe it will fail on two but succeed on the most important and have set out my argument in a blog post here https://communities.theiet.org/groups/blogpost/view/27/231/6920


The project is so complex to think costs will not overrun or timing slip is to be naive, as it is impossible to predict them when the timescales are so long and the complexity so great, but the outcome will be a success
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  • Hi Maurice I don't know about the UK being poor at major innovation , the problem is I think not so much that  we arnt innovative , more a case we don't have the sorts of engineers and mind set that can make up its mind what works , and so all the bad ideas and speculators get the funding and favour. I am sympathetic to where no one could think beyond a certain horizon , I mean some people cant quite grasp some ideas and we have a whole new frontier in getting environmental thinking right and at the moment places like the IET don't do biology and earths natural life systems. I think with HS2 it was marginal from the start and well over a billion has gone on it already. To go really fast on 120km of line , is a pretty unusual thing to start from , I mean going really fast between 500km nodes really could produce some economic uplift , but then you need to think about what other aspects you can get from your railway, and HS2 has been pretty clear on how it will work , with heritage stock or adaptability , it is a high speed rail adventure in all its design aspects .

    Ticketing is as you say , if you look around you can see good offers , to fill the spaces around higher usage volumes , so what is being said about HS2 is that it will have revenues other than regular commuting , which is where the case gets really shaky. your right also on the effect it could have on the rest of the rail network in terms of investment , and that old infrastructure will need replacing . It just saddens me that the correct arguments are not being heard and were all going to paying our taxes to something that could fail very badly in revenue terms and people transported , I mean were all ready at the levels where it will need subsidy when operational , and at least the big spend of the channel tunnel managed to keep revenues. which even the plump expenses of the Birmingham to London business user isn't really there and it only gets more expensive from Birmingham onwards . despite the excellent and confident maps of the routes. It will be a tragedy in my view how it works out and big bill for future tax payers and given its a shareholder venture they get any profits first .
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  • Hi Maurice I don't know about the UK being poor at major innovation , the problem is I think not so much that  we arnt innovative , more a case we don't have the sorts of engineers and mind set that can make up its mind what works , and so all the bad ideas and speculators get the funding and favour. I am sympathetic to where no one could think beyond a certain horizon , I mean some people cant quite grasp some ideas and we have a whole new frontier in getting environmental thinking right and at the moment places like the IET don't do biology and earths natural life systems. I think with HS2 it was marginal from the start and well over a billion has gone on it already. To go really fast on 120km of line , is a pretty unusual thing to start from , I mean going really fast between 500km nodes really could produce some economic uplift , but then you need to think about what other aspects you can get from your railway, and HS2 has been pretty clear on how it will work , with heritage stock or adaptability , it is a high speed rail adventure in all its design aspects .

    Ticketing is as you say , if you look around you can see good offers , to fill the spaces around higher usage volumes , so what is being said about HS2 is that it will have revenues other than regular commuting , which is where the case gets really shaky. your right also on the effect it could have on the rest of the rail network in terms of investment , and that old infrastructure will need replacing . It just saddens me that the correct arguments are not being heard and were all going to paying our taxes to something that could fail very badly in revenue terms and people transported , I mean were all ready at the levels where it will need subsidy when operational , and at least the big spend of the channel tunnel managed to keep revenues. which even the plump expenses of the Birmingham to London business user isn't really there and it only gets more expensive from Birmingham onwards . despite the excellent and confident maps of the routes. It will be a tragedy in my view how it works out and big bill for future tax payers and given its a shareholder venture they get any profits first .
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