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Will HS2 Fail or Succeed?

I believe it will do both, it just depends on the measure you use. In an project there are three measures of success or failure, cost, time-scale and outcome and I believe it will fail on two but succeed on the most important and have set out my argument in a blog post here https://communities.theiet.org/groups/blogpost/view/27/231/6920


The project is so complex to think costs will not overrun or timing slip is to be naive, as it is impossible to predict them when the timescales are so long and the complexity so great, but the outcome will be a success
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  • The reason why we don't have all the innovation is that it makes things more complex, more expensive and less reliable.  An electric train sitting on two rails in nice and simple, and it works.  People have tries monorails, maglev trains and the like.  They have either been abandoned or kept as curiosities running along short lines.


    Running a train system is difficult and complex.  Adding and subtracting carriages throughout the day adds complexity and slows things down.  Running the same length train back and forth along the same line all day is simpler and quicker.  I have been on trains that split in half at some point along the journey.  Apart from the risk that passengers will end up in the wrong half of the train, there is always a delay as the two halves of the train are uncoupled.  And then you need to organise a driver for each half, because you can't just abandon carriages in the middle of the track.


    Running trains in motorway central reservations isn't going to work.  Most aren't wide enough for two trains to pass, and nobody wants a single-track line these days.  Motorways don't go through towns, they go around them.  So the train will have to peel away from the motorways to visit towns.  And every time a vehicle hits teh central reservation, you're going to have to cancel every train until a structural engineer has attended to assess the damage.  It's so much easier to run the line parallel to teh motorway.


    Never forget the KISS principle.

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  • The reason why we don't have all the innovation is that it makes things more complex, more expensive and less reliable.  An electric train sitting on two rails in nice and simple, and it works.  People have tries monorails, maglev trains and the like.  They have either been abandoned or kept as curiosities running along short lines.


    Running a train system is difficult and complex.  Adding and subtracting carriages throughout the day adds complexity and slows things down.  Running the same length train back and forth along the same line all day is simpler and quicker.  I have been on trains that split in half at some point along the journey.  Apart from the risk that passengers will end up in the wrong half of the train, there is always a delay as the two halves of the train are uncoupled.  And then you need to organise a driver for each half, because you can't just abandon carriages in the middle of the track.


    Running trains in motorway central reservations isn't going to work.  Most aren't wide enough for two trains to pass, and nobody wants a single-track line these days.  Motorways don't go through towns, they go around them.  So the train will have to peel away from the motorways to visit towns.  And every time a vehicle hits teh central reservation, you're going to have to cancel every train until a structural engineer has attended to assess the damage.  It's so much easier to run the line parallel to teh motorway.


    Never forget the KISS principle.

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