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Will HS2 Fail or Succeed?

I believe it will do both, it just depends on the measure you use. In an project there are three measures of success or failure, cost, time-scale and outcome and I believe it will fail on two but succeed on the most important and have set out my argument in a blog post here https://communities.theiet.org/groups/blogpost/view/27/231/6920


The project is so complex to think costs will not overrun or timing slip is to be naive, as it is impossible to predict them when the timescales are so long and the complexity so great, but the outcome will be a success
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  • Former Community Member
    0 Former Community Member
    I didn't say run trains 'in' central reservations, I said run trains 'above' central reservations and 'over' motorways on raised modern rail track systems for maglev, hyperloop, etc. Trains running between motorways works extremely well in the USA - just go to Washington, etc. I'm also saying run semi-autonomous train pod convoys, like the proposed autonomous road haulage convoys, and 'build' trains in realtime based on demand to each destination - AI using ticketing data could do this easily. Train pods can be stored, added and removed, anywhere along the route in 'raised shunting yards'. The aim of HS2 is not to have too many stops to cut down journey time, so only needs to follow motorways between cities and then into and out of the few cities en route.


    Think exponentially what is required 10 years, 20, 30 years ahead in a changed more sustainable world, not replicate the inefficient rail system with just slightly faster and more expensive to what we have today.


    If today's train commuter is not clever enough to get in the right pod that has big destination signage all over it, and probably by then has nano-GPS route guidance to the pre-booked pod seat on a personal IoT/AI smart device, they really shouldn't be let out to travel on their own.


    If we had taken your proposed KISS way forward last century, we would not be using recyclable rockets, having commercial space journeys to the Space station let alone have a space station, gone to the moon, gone supersonic, have electric and hydrogen vehicles, or even be communicating as we are today. 


    More Arthur C Clark attitude and vision required I suggest.
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  • Former Community Member
    0 Former Community Member
    I didn't say run trains 'in' central reservations, I said run trains 'above' central reservations and 'over' motorways on raised modern rail track systems for maglev, hyperloop, etc. Trains running between motorways works extremely well in the USA - just go to Washington, etc. I'm also saying run semi-autonomous train pod convoys, like the proposed autonomous road haulage convoys, and 'build' trains in realtime based on demand to each destination - AI using ticketing data could do this easily. Train pods can be stored, added and removed, anywhere along the route in 'raised shunting yards'. The aim of HS2 is not to have too many stops to cut down journey time, so only needs to follow motorways between cities and then into and out of the few cities en route.


    Think exponentially what is required 10 years, 20, 30 years ahead in a changed more sustainable world, not replicate the inefficient rail system with just slightly faster and more expensive to what we have today.


    If today's train commuter is not clever enough to get in the right pod that has big destination signage all over it, and probably by then has nano-GPS route guidance to the pre-booked pod seat on a personal IoT/AI smart device, they really shouldn't be let out to travel on their own.


    If we had taken your proposed KISS way forward last century, we would not be using recyclable rockets, having commercial space journeys to the Space station let alone have a space station, gone to the moon, gone supersonic, have electric and hydrogen vehicles, or even be communicating as we are today. 


    More Arthur C Clark attitude and vision required I suggest.
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