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Will HS2 Fail or Succeed?

Dave Perton
I believe it will do both, it just depends on the measure you use. In an project there are three measures of success or failure, cost, time-scale and outcome and I believe it will fail on two but succeed on the most important and have set out my argument in a blog post here https://communities.theiet.org/groups/blogpost/view/27/231/6920


The project is so complex to think costs will not overrun or timing slip is to be naive, as it is impossible to predict them when the timescales are so long and the complexity so great, but the outcome will be a success
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    My point is that people love coming up with clever over-complicated solutions, when there is a simple well-known solution.  The most cost-effective solution to a problem is the one to go for.


    The clever solution is more risky, will probably end up costing more.  Building railway lines above motorways will involve a massive disruption to the motorway network while it is being done. It will require huge engineering works to build something strong enough to hold two trains passing.  Bridges over the motorway would have to be knocked down and rebuilt higher.  Motorway bridges over other things, such as rivers, will have to be knocked down and built stronger.
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    My point is that people love coming up with clever over-complicated solutions, when there is a simple well-known solution.  The most cost-effective solution to a problem is the one to go for.


    The clever solution is more risky, will probably end up costing more.  Building railway lines above motorways will involve a massive disruption to the motorway network while it is being done. It will require huge engineering works to build something strong enough to hold two trains passing.  Bridges over the motorway would have to be knocked down and rebuilt higher.  Motorway bridges over other things, such as rivers, will have to be knocked down and built stronger.
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