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Will HS2 Fail or Succeed?

Dave Perton
I believe it will do both, it just depends on the measure you use. In an project there are three measures of success or failure, cost, time-scale and outcome and I believe it will fail on two but succeed on the most important and have set out my argument in a blog post here https://communities.theiet.org/groups/blogpost/view/27/231/6920


The project is so complex to think costs will not overrun or timing slip is to be naive, as it is impossible to predict them when the timescales are so long and the complexity so great, but the outcome will be a success
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    Well that drew an interesting range of responses. From the "It's a waste of money and should be cancelled", through "it's the wrong transport system", to general support.I am not expecting to challenge the entrenched views with any success. 


    Personally I believe  transport systems will always find a market, ticket pricing will match market needs to create it. Although we are now working differently and I expect Zoom meetings will continue to be the new normal, they will not eliminate the need to travel. People also work while travelling and enjoy travelling.I know I do. Even if f the passenger numbers don't appear then at least we will have freight capacity to take diesel lorries of f the road. by the time it is ready pretty much all electricity will be renewables or nuclear.


    We clearly currently do not have enough capacity on our rail system and this will make a big difference to that, although local infrastructure will also need to be improved and capacity added.


    The same leap of faith is required that the Victorians took with the first railways, or digging the canals before that and I for one, support taking it, it is what British Engineers do best.

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    Well that drew an interesting range of responses. From the "It's a waste of money and should be cancelled", through "it's the wrong transport system", to general support.I am not expecting to challenge the entrenched views with any success. 


    Personally I believe  transport systems will always find a market, ticket pricing will match market needs to create it. Although we are now working differently and I expect Zoom meetings will continue to be the new normal, they will not eliminate the need to travel. People also work while travelling and enjoy travelling.I know I do. Even if f the passenger numbers don't appear then at least we will have freight capacity to take diesel lorries of f the road. by the time it is ready pretty much all electricity will be renewables or nuclear.


    We clearly currently do not have enough capacity on our rail system and this will make a big difference to that, although local infrastructure will also need to be improved and capacity added.


    The same leap of faith is required that the Victorians took with the first railways, or digging the canals before that and I for one, support taking it, it is what British Engineers do best.

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