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Will HS2 Fail or Succeed?

I believe it will do both, it just depends on the measure you use. In an project there are three measures of success or failure, cost, time-scale and outcome and I believe it will fail on two but succeed on the most important and have set out my argument in a blog post here https://communities.theiet.org/groups/blogpost/view/27/231/6920

The project is so complex to think costs will not overrun or timing slip is to be naive, as it is impossible to predict them when the timescales are so long and the complexity so great, but the outcome will be a success

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0 Angus Munro over 5 years ago

Hi Andy,

I wrote to a number of Ministers, MPs, TSC, and members of the HoL, expressing my sentiments above and did receive acknowledgements – it may be another reason why Stephenson has just said a few days ago that HS2 Phase 2b will still be built for 360kmph running.

Although there were potentially better ways the money could have been spent, the decision has been made. I simply believe that the DfT and HS2 have failed in their duty to keep up to date with their knowledge of the capabilities of the latest tilt train technology from Alstom and Talgo. Had they done so, less damage would have been done to areas such as the SSSI as the line could have gone around the area while trains still maintained over 300kmph in tilt mode. They have completely failed to stop and reappraise what cards they had to play.

I’ve included below what is still possible for the Phase2b and NPR new lines if these tilt trains are bought so that others who face the similar life changing problem (of a line taking out their home, business or local SSSO) and be able to do something about it.

Under UK Freedom of Information requests to HS2 and the Department for Transport, (FOI15-1461 Jan 11, 2016, FOI15-1257R/1276R Ref: FER0591609 Nov 11, 2015), HS2 have published the following minimum radius of curve for the HS2 line without tilt:
200kmph = 2100m
250kmph = 3300m
300kmph = 4640m
360kmph = 7310m
400kmph = 9030m (and if relaxed 8210m with 80mm cant deficiency)

HS2 have never worked out the Radius of Curve for higher speed tilting, but using cant of Heq=150mm, and a cant deficiency of Hdef=200mm, I've worked out the following values for a train with tilt from h[eq+def]=11.8xV^2/R:
200kmph = 1348m (UK Pendolino max speed)
250kmph = 2107m (latest Pendolino speed used on Italian-Swiss route)
300kmph = 2457m (Possibly the max permitted tilt speed for the Alstom Avelia Liberty)
350kmph = 4130m
360kmph = 4369m (HS2 normal operating speed, but Alstom Avelia & Talgo Avril can reach 360kmph in non-tilt mode)
400kmph = 5394m (HS2 route alignment speed)

We now need to consider how we make Phase 2b, NPR and the whole scheme better. Applying the lessons from Phase 1 & 2a, and taking on board the fact that new fast HS2 speed tilting trains exist (Alstom’s only rolled out the upstate NY factory late 2019), then more sinuous lines can be built that are routed around sensitive areas (population, terrain, SSSI), and still provide the same journey time savings, capacity and overall return to the UK taxpayer over the 60-100 year period. These trains can also allow for a UK wide upgrade to the network of other main lines for less cost than a new line.

I am sensitive to the requirement to protect SSSIs, however do the French, German, Spanish, Italians or Japanese not have their own unique ancient SSI areas of their own? Somehow they manage to build and move forward. If we do in fact have globally unique areas (which they may well be) then engaging with the bioscience community to extract the DNA and store this for future re-planting is a solution. There are experts in that area that can assist in minimising any permanent loss, but given the width of a standard HSL line I think the fears are significantly over-egged and I would suggest that we will not lose a single plant species from this line being built and most of the existing plants will be transplanted in an attempt to minimise area loss.

We could also have completely tunnelled the route below SSIs, and in terms of cost the 45 mile long line from Bologna to Florence only cost around €5bn about 10 years ago. So there were options, we just have politicians who aren’t technical; indeed we are probably one of the few European nations where ministers run departments having had no previous technical skills whatsoever. It’s almost a feather in the cap to go round the houses as quickly as possible, which isn’t good for UK taxpayers having effective Ministers. Anyone remember Caroline Nokes at a NI select committee having admitted she hadn’t read the full Good Friday Agreement even though she was 6 months in post as the Secretary of State? Now we’ve had Grayling and now Shapps – he’s got a PPL you know but he can’t seem to come up with a viable scheme to directly connect what will be the UK’s two biggest infrastructure schemes – Heathrow and HS2, eg, the HS2 spur continues to Gatwick, or Southampton, or forms part of the line to Waterloo and Heathrow also becomes a national interchange hub.

HighSpeedUK was cheaper, but as this design is for the next 100 years I would have gone for maglev. Yes it is new technology, but who did write the report recommending the system choice to government? Rob Eddington, an aviation insider. Maglev would have decimated UK domestic aviation – the industry he spent his life working in.

Adjusted for inflation, the total cost of the Siemens/Thyssenkrupp maglev per km, applied to the whole 330 mile / 530km HS2 route would have been just £24.2bn. Replacing the full 330miles / 530km HS2 line with the German maglev including trains, stations and dual track.
= US$23.1bn [2004 prices]
= US$31.4bn [2019 including 36% US inflation]
= £24.2bn [2019 converted using $1.3/£]
Then there are the advantages or less noise, maintenance, 99%+ reliability.

So we are where we are. HS2 needs to be a success. If you see a problem, use your MP and write to Ministers and the Transport Select Committee.
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0 Angus Munro over 5 years ago

Hi Andy,

I wrote to a number of Ministers, MPs, TSC, and members of the HoL, expressing my sentiments above and did receive acknowledgements – it may be another reason why Stephenson has just said a few days ago that HS2 Phase 2b will still be built for 360kmph running.

Although there were potentially better ways the money could have been spent, the decision has been made. I simply believe that the DfT and HS2 have failed in their duty to keep up to date with their knowledge of the capabilities of the latest tilt train technology from Alstom and Talgo. Had they done so, less damage would have been done to areas such as the SSSI as the line could have gone around the area while trains still maintained over 300kmph in tilt mode. They have completely failed to stop and reappraise what cards they had to play.

I’ve included below what is still possible for the Phase2b and NPR new lines if these tilt trains are bought so that others who face the similar life changing problem (of a line taking out their home, business or local SSSO) and be able to do something about it.

Under UK Freedom of Information requests to HS2 and the Department for Transport, (FOI15-1461 Jan 11, 2016, FOI15-1257R/1276R Ref: FER0591609 Nov 11, 2015), HS2 have published the following minimum radius of curve for the HS2 line without tilt:
200kmph = 2100m
250kmph = 3300m
300kmph = 4640m
360kmph = 7310m
400kmph = 9030m (and if relaxed 8210m with 80mm cant deficiency)

HS2 have never worked out the Radius of Curve for higher speed tilting, but using cant of Heq=150mm, and a cant deficiency of Hdef=200mm, I've worked out the following values for a train with tilt from h[eq+def]=11.8xV^2/R:
200kmph = 1348m (UK Pendolino max speed)
250kmph = 2107m (latest Pendolino speed used on Italian-Swiss route)
300kmph = 2457m (Possibly the max permitted tilt speed for the Alstom Avelia Liberty)
350kmph = 4130m
360kmph = 4369m (HS2 normal operating speed, but Alstom Avelia & Talgo Avril can reach 360kmph in non-tilt mode)
400kmph = 5394m (HS2 route alignment speed)

We now need to consider how we make Phase 2b, NPR and the whole scheme better. Applying the lessons from Phase 1 & 2a, and taking on board the fact that new fast HS2 speed tilting trains exist (Alstom’s only rolled out the upstate NY factory late 2019), then more sinuous lines can be built that are routed around sensitive areas (population, terrain, SSSI), and still provide the same journey time savings, capacity and overall return to the UK taxpayer over the 60-100 year period. These trains can also allow for a UK wide upgrade to the network of other main lines for less cost than a new line.

I am sensitive to the requirement to protect SSSIs, however do the French, German, Spanish, Italians or Japanese not have their own unique ancient SSI areas of their own? Somehow they manage to build and move forward. If we do in fact have globally unique areas (which they may well be) then engaging with the bioscience community to extract the DNA and store this for future re-planting is a solution. There are experts in that area that can assist in minimising any permanent loss, but given the width of a standard HSL line I think the fears are significantly over-egged and I would suggest that we will not lose a single plant species from this line being built and most of the existing plants will be transplanted in an attempt to minimise area loss.

We could also have completely tunnelled the route below SSIs, and in terms of cost the 45 mile long line from Bologna to Florence only cost around €5bn about 10 years ago. So there were options, we just have politicians who aren’t technical; indeed we are probably one of the few European nations where ministers run departments having had no previous technical skills whatsoever. It’s almost a feather in the cap to go round the houses as quickly as possible, which isn’t good for UK taxpayers having effective Ministers. Anyone remember Caroline Nokes at a NI select committee having admitted she hadn’t read the full Good Friday Agreement even though she was 6 months in post as the Secretary of State? Now we’ve had Grayling and now Shapps – he’s got a PPL you know but he can’t seem to come up with a viable scheme to directly connect what will be the UK’s two biggest infrastructure schemes – Heathrow and HS2, eg, the HS2 spur continues to Gatwick, or Southampton, or forms part of the line to Waterloo and Heathrow also becomes a national interchange hub.

HighSpeedUK was cheaper, but as this design is for the next 100 years I would have gone for maglev. Yes it is new technology, but who did write the report recommending the system choice to government? Rob Eddington, an aviation insider. Maglev would have decimated UK domestic aviation – the industry he spent his life working in.

Adjusted for inflation, the total cost of the Siemens/Thyssenkrupp maglev per km, applied to the whole 330 mile / 530km HS2 route would have been just £24.2bn. Replacing the full 330miles / 530km HS2 line with the German maglev including trains, stations and dual track.
= US$23.1bn [2004 prices]
= US$31.4bn [2019 including 36% US inflation]
= £24.2bn [2019 converted using $1.3/£]
Then there are the advantages or less noise, maintenance, 99%+ reliability.

So we are where we are. HS2 needs to be a success. If you see a problem, use your MP and write to Ministers and the Transport Select Committee.
Cancel
Vote Up 0 Vote Down

Cancel

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Will HS2 Fail or Succeed?

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