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Will HS2 Fail or Succeed?

I believe it will do both, it just depends on the measure you use. In an project there are three measures of success or failure, cost, time-scale and outcome and I believe it will fail on two but succeed on the most important and have set out my argument in a blog post here https://communities.theiet.org/groups/blogpost/view/27/231/6920


The project is so complex to think costs will not overrun or timing slip is to be naive, as it is impossible to predict them when the timescales are so long and the complexity so great, but the outcome will be a success
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  • I make these comments as a retired northerner who has traveled to London on the west cost main line since the '60s when it was British Rail and having witnessed and experienced  the  incompetence and London centric policies of politicians and civil servants since the 50's. This includes periods of being a weekly commuter to London for many years and a couple of years as a senior civil servant. I have also traveled around Europe and the US by train and plane.


    I would probably have been a supporter of HS2 if they had started building it in Scotland. It would then have stood a chance of reaching London and if cancelled would have generated the most gains in time saved from Scotland to Manchester or the midlands. Given the time it has now taken and the cost overruns I do not expect it to make it past Birmingham. I remember when people north of London complained that the fast trains to the continent terminated in London, a senior politician said that they would be extended north, but when push came to shove we were told they had run out of money!


    The change in behaviour that will result from the current crisis and the resultant government borrowing will focus minds on what is required and I cannot see HS2 surviving. It will not however result in any improvements anywhere else. 


    The northern train network and the rolling stock on most of it remind me of Southern region in the 60's, I will believe the Northern Powerhouse improvements when I see them. A 30 mile train journey takes about an hour and is packed at peak times. The west coast mainline is standing room only at peak times and I have often been on it when the reserved seat signs on the pedalo trains have not been working - chaos. Why are we so incompetent at running railways compared with the rest of the world? The incompetent privatisation has not helped.


    I see no evidence of joined up thinking/planning in any aspect of HS2 or any other Government policies and it has a major impact on the competitiveness of this country. 


    And the final part of my rant is the attitude towards engineers and manufacturing by our politicians. Engineers appear to be regarded as the guys and gals who fix your car and manufacturing? - horribly dirty places that we need to outsource to other countries. We are told that we need to be  a knowledge economy but our education ratings are dropping in the world wide rankings and we sell off our successful knowledge based companies to foreign competitors.


    Postscript. A friend who had a 10 acre smallholding near Crewe is near the route for HS2 and his holding has been purchased for HS2, not for the track but so they can plant trees on it as part of the greening programme. He had lived there for 25 years built a large garage, barns, stables, etc and got everything how he wanted it. He was being offered "comparable" houses on new build estates as a price comparison for his holding. After 5 years of silly offers and delaying tactics from HS2 he gave in and accepted a low offer for the holding and has started again with a holding well away from train lines.


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  • I make these comments as a retired northerner who has traveled to London on the west cost main line since the '60s when it was British Rail and having witnessed and experienced  the  incompetence and London centric policies of politicians and civil servants since the 50's. This includes periods of being a weekly commuter to London for many years and a couple of years as a senior civil servant. I have also traveled around Europe and the US by train and plane.


    I would probably have been a supporter of HS2 if they had started building it in Scotland. It would then have stood a chance of reaching London and if cancelled would have generated the most gains in time saved from Scotland to Manchester or the midlands. Given the time it has now taken and the cost overruns I do not expect it to make it past Birmingham. I remember when people north of London complained that the fast trains to the continent terminated in London, a senior politician said that they would be extended north, but when push came to shove we were told they had run out of money!


    The change in behaviour that will result from the current crisis and the resultant government borrowing will focus minds on what is required and I cannot see HS2 surviving. It will not however result in any improvements anywhere else. 


    The northern train network and the rolling stock on most of it remind me of Southern region in the 60's, I will believe the Northern Powerhouse improvements when I see them. A 30 mile train journey takes about an hour and is packed at peak times. The west coast mainline is standing room only at peak times and I have often been on it when the reserved seat signs on the pedalo trains have not been working - chaos. Why are we so incompetent at running railways compared with the rest of the world? The incompetent privatisation has not helped.


    I see no evidence of joined up thinking/planning in any aspect of HS2 or any other Government policies and it has a major impact on the competitiveness of this country. 


    And the final part of my rant is the attitude towards engineers and manufacturing by our politicians. Engineers appear to be regarded as the guys and gals who fix your car and manufacturing? - horribly dirty places that we need to outsource to other countries. We are told that we need to be  a knowledge economy but our education ratings are dropping in the world wide rankings and we sell off our successful knowledge based companies to foreign competitors.


    Postscript. A friend who had a 10 acre smallholding near Crewe is near the route for HS2 and his holding has been purchased for HS2, not for the track but so they can plant trees on it as part of the greening programme. He had lived there for 25 years built a large garage, barns, stables, etc and got everything how he wanted it. He was being offered "comparable" houses on new build estates as a price comparison for his holding. After 5 years of silly offers and delaying tactics from HS2 he gave in and accepted a low offer for the holding and has started again with a holding well away from train lines.


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