SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?

davezawadi (David Stone):

This has probably killed many more people than any risk of Covid infection to nearly all the population.?

Sigh. Roughly a third of Covid hospital admissions have been people under 65. People admitted to hospital for Covid are those who have a good chance of dying unless given suitable medical treatment. Roughly 2/3rds of those hospitalised recover, chiefly because the oxygen, mechanical ventilation etc keep them alive while their immune system learns to defeat the virus. Obviously the older and more ill patients are the ones who tend to die.


However, if the number of patients increases beyond hospitals' ability to cope, then that all changes. Suddenly all those 40,50,60-something patients who would have survived now start dying in large numbers. So if hospitals are at max capacity and you triple the infection rate, you're going to see something like a 9x an increase in deaths, not 3x.


The lockdowns we've had so far have each just about kept patient rates below the absolute maximum capacity of the NHS.

davezawadi (David Stone):

This has probably killed many more people than any risk of Covid infection to nearly all the population.?

Sigh. Roughly a third of Covid hospital admissions have been people under 65. People admitted to hospital for Covid are those who have a good chance of dying unless given suitable medical treatment. Roughly 2/3rds of those hospitalised recover, chiefly because the oxygen, mechanical ventilation etc keep them alive while their immune system learns to defeat the virus. Obviously the older and more ill patients are the ones who tend to die.


However, if the number of patients increases beyond hospitals' ability to cope, then that all changes. Suddenly all those 40,50,60-something patients who would have survived now start dying in large numbers. So if hospitals are at max capacity and you triple the infection rate, you're going to see something like a 9x an increase in deaths, not 3x.


The lockdowns we've had so far have each just about kept patient rates below the absolute maximum capacity of the NHS.