Electric Vehicles - Impact on electrical network. Survey of vehicle uptake.

Lee Morris:


I also don’t believe such huge changes to the grid are required. I have seen no evidence of this outside of the hysterical media. Most studies conducted by experts serving the grid and large DNOs show that gradual infrastructure upgrades, combined with rebalancing of the networks by shifting energy usage times and smoothing of peaks over the next 15 years will be sufficient. 

 

There are a lot of studies/calculations that aim to show that the electricity supply for charging EVs is no problem, They usually contain somewhat dubious assumptions. This is one from The Engineer:

https://www.theengineer.co.uk/utac-ceram-millbrook-ev-testing-blog/

 

• Peter Farley 27th April 2021 at 2:44 am
  
  

  The investment required is trivial compared to the investment in the vehicles or even the current liquid fuel distribution systems. Most houses and workplaces have more than sufficient grid capacity tied with smart charging to provide 90-95% of charges. Even a large bus or delivery vehicle depot might need Pds 5-10,000 per charging bay and they don’t need a charger for every vehicle. An electric bus is in the order of Pds 200,000.
  
  High speed chargers on motorways and A roads are necessary but there are already plenty of companies installing them well ahead of demand. As destination charging becomes almost as common as parking meters, the proportion of charging done at high speed chargers will fall.

  
  
  

  As for the grid it was built to handle at least 350 TWh per year and is currently supplying about 260 TWh. Over the next 10 years the UK might add 10 m EVs each of which will use an average 1,500 kWh per year for a total demand of 15 TWh. Even if that is increased by 50% to account for buses and delivery vehicles 22 TWh is easily handled, particularly as smart charging will be used to smooth the load.
  
  Then we come to generation capacity. The Uk is planning to increase offshore wind by 24 GW by 2030 and the pipeline for onshore wind is around 16 GW and utility solar is 5.7 GW. At conservative modern capacity factors that is around 180 TWh of new supply over the next 10 years, that is enough to replace all current coal and gas (100 TWh) and more than enough to supply new transport demand of 20+TWh and enough left over to provide heatpump heating for 20m dwellings

  
  
  Roger B 27th April 2021 at 3:14 pm
  
  

  Peter, your electricity consumption per EV seems somewhat low. Typical consumption is 3 to 4 miles per kWh giving a suggested milage of 4500-6000 miles per year. The most likely purchasers of EVs are high milage users as they will 1) get the most savings and 2) have the shortest vehicle replacement cycle. A real number is probably more like 15-20 000 miles per year so around 60 TWh.
  
  A ‘ reverse’ (looking at the energy comsuption of petrol and diesel) study I made of Germany a few years ago suggested and automotive consumption of around 100 TWh per year for full replacement . that is a significant proportion of the grid capacity.

  
  

Lee Morris:


I also don’t believe such huge changes to the grid are required. I have seen no evidence of this outside of the hysterical media. Most studies conducted by experts serving the grid and large DNOs show that gradual infrastructure upgrades, combined with rebalancing of the networks by shifting energy usage times and smoothing of peaks over the next 15 years will be sufficient. 

 

There are a lot of studies/calculations that aim to show that the electricity supply for charging EVs is no problem, They usually contain somewhat dubious assumptions. This is one from The Engineer:

https://www.theengineer.co.uk/utac-ceram-millbrook-ev-testing-blog/

 

• Peter Farley 27th April 2021 at 2:44 am
  
  

  The investment required is trivial compared to the investment in the vehicles or even the current liquid fuel distribution systems. Most houses and workplaces have more than sufficient grid capacity tied with smart charging to provide 90-95% of charges. Even a large bus or delivery vehicle depot might need Pds 5-10,000 per charging bay and they don’t need a charger for every vehicle. An electric bus is in the order of Pds 200,000.
  
  High speed chargers on motorways and A roads are necessary but there are already plenty of companies installing them well ahead of demand. As destination charging becomes almost as common as parking meters, the proportion of charging done at high speed chargers will fall.

  
  
  

  As for the grid it was built to handle at least 350 TWh per year and is currently supplying about 260 TWh. Over the next 10 years the UK might add 10 m EVs each of which will use an average 1,500 kWh per year for a total demand of 15 TWh. Even if that is increased by 50% to account for buses and delivery vehicles 22 TWh is easily handled, particularly as smart charging will be used to smooth the load.
  
  Then we come to generation capacity. The Uk is planning to increase offshore wind by 24 GW by 2030 and the pipeline for onshore wind is around 16 GW and utility solar is 5.7 GW. At conservative modern capacity factors that is around 180 TWh of new supply over the next 10 years, that is enough to replace all current coal and gas (100 TWh) and more than enough to supply new transport demand of 20+TWh and enough left over to provide heatpump heating for 20m dwellings

  
  
  Roger B 27th April 2021 at 3:14 pm
  
  

  Peter, your electricity consumption per EV seems somewhat low. Typical consumption is 3 to 4 miles per kWh giving a suggested milage of 4500-6000 miles per year. The most likely purchasers of EVs are high milage users as they will 1) get the most savings and 2) have the shortest vehicle replacement cycle. A real number is probably more like 15-20 000 miles per year so around 60 TWh.
  
  A ‘ reverse’ (looking at the energy comsuption of petrol and diesel) study I made of Germany a few years ago suggested and automotive consumption of around 100 TWh per year for full replacement . that is a significant proportion of the grid capacity.