Power shortages

There is no shortage of electricity in the UK at present, but there are two different concerns for the future.

Firstly doubts have been expressed as to the future availability of natural gas from which a significant proportion of our electricity is produced. AT PRESENT natural gas is exceedingly costly but readily available, imports are arriving more or less as normal, and the UK paltry gas storage is nearly full. 

Secondly, no matter how generous natural gas supplies may be, doubts exist as to whether the UK has sufficient generating capacity to meet the peak load.

I suspect that we shall muddle through as we usually do, but margins are tighter than is considered desirable.

Coal burning capacity is now minimal, nuclear much reduced and liable to fall further, hydro only a small part of total capacity, and gas burning capacity is significant, but will it be enough ?

Solar helps a bit during the day but is nil in the evening peak. Wind is a major source at times, but not to be totally relied upon due to variable weather.

Interconnectors help, but in total are only about 10% of peak demand. They are vulnerable to breakdowns, to political disputes, and to electricity shortages in the exporting nations.

A series of breakdowns in cold but calm weather could be interesting. The loss of two or three power stations and a couple of interconnectors would be serious. In windy weather, no problem at at all, but in calm weather ? There is also IMHO, a small but real risk of truly extreme weather damaging infrastructure, and the possibility of terrorist attacks on electrical infrastructure.

I would urge that both individuals and businesses should review their preparations for power cuts. Rota cuts due to shortages are only for three hours, though breakdowns can take longer to fix.  

There is no shortage of electricity in the UK at present, but there are two different concerns for the future.

Firstly doubts have been expressed as to the future availability of natural gas from which a significant proportion of our electricity is produced. AT PRESENT natural gas is exceedingly costly but readily available, imports are arriving more or less as normal, and the UK paltry gas storage is nearly full. 

Secondly, no matter how generous natural gas supplies may be, doubts exist as to whether the UK has sufficient generating capacity to meet the peak load.

I suspect that we shall muddle through as we usually do, but margins are tighter than is considered desirable.

Coal burning capacity is now minimal, nuclear much reduced and liable to fall further, hydro only a small part of total capacity, and gas burning capacity is significant, but will it be enough ?

Solar helps a bit during the day but is nil in the evening peak. Wind is a major source at times, but not to be totally relied upon due to variable weather.

Interconnectors help, but in total are only about 10% of peak demand. They are vulnerable to breakdowns, to political disputes, and to electricity shortages in the exporting nations.

A series of breakdowns in cold but calm weather could be interesting. The loss of two or three power stations and a couple of interconnectors would be serious. In windy weather, no problem at at all, but in calm weather ? There is also IMHO, a small but real risk of truly extreme weather damaging infrastructure, and the possibility of terrorist attacks on electrical infrastructure.

I would urge that both individuals and businesses should review their preparations for power cuts. Rota cuts due to shortages are only for three hours, though breakdowns can take longer to fix.