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How will electric cars 'die'?

Has much research been carried out into what happens to electric cars as they age and how they eventually ‘die’?

There are several potential possibilities including:

1 The bodywork rusts away. Theoretically the same as for an ICE car, but will electric cars be on average more or less rust prone than ICE cars due to differences in the internal structure of the bodyshell?

2 Wear to suspension and steering components. Theoretically the same as for an ICE car. A common MOT failure that can be expensive to repair.

3 A catastrophic failure of the inverter and the cost of repair or replacement. Inverters are heavily stressed subassemblies that appear to have a finite life. Will power semiconductors and other components likely to break down with prolonged use be available and realistically replaceable, or will inverters be deliberately designed in order that failed components cannot be economically replaced?

4 Electronic systems failures where replacement is uneconomical. Theoretically similar for a modern ICE car.

5 The battery. High cost of replacement plus potential obsolescence (like try finding a replacement battery for a power tool from the 1990s) could sound the death knell of a 15 year old car that works just as good as the day it was new.

Will electric cars ever reach ‘banger’ status where it's possible to buy a >10 year old car for under £2000 and run it for 2 to 3 years? There are many people who subscribe to bangernomics, for one reason or another, but will it continue into the electric era or will a situation arise where it's impossible to buy a working electric car with a working battery for less than £10,000?

Will electric cars ever reach classic status where it's possible to buy a >25 year old car that can still be driven?

Could a situation arise where governments control the supply of batteries for electric cars and ‘tax’ them in a certain way to make up for the loss in fuel duty?

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  • Arran Cameron: 
     

    Has much research been carried out into what happens to electric cars as they age and how they eventually ‘die’?

    There are several potential possibilities including:……

    Good question.

    To address part of it, there is significant research going into recycling batteries. The batteries are physically a big part of the vehicle. There is a lot of electronics, but physically they are not large; however, electronics nowadays is recycled,  because of the rarity of some physical components ("rare earths" and so on).

    The current deal on batteries is physical reduction and extraction of the valuable parts, essentially as raw substance. However, I understand a lot of work is going into component architectures that enable disassembly. Sort of integrated modular batteries, if you like. If we get to the point at which service centres can swap out underperforming cells, which can then be inexpensively refurbished, then we would be in essentially the situation we are in now with ICE vehicles, except that the motors will last longer and be much cheaper to rebuild. 

    How that will work out in socioeconomic practice, though, is hard to see. It is not out of the question that battery supply and refurbishment becomes a substantial, possibly even the main, part of the automotive industry. Or that, when you buy an EV, you contract separately for the vehicle hull and for its battery. As we do now for the ICE vehicle hull and its energy supply.

Reply
  • Arran Cameron: 
     

    Has much research been carried out into what happens to electric cars as they age and how they eventually ‘die’?

    There are several potential possibilities including:……

    Good question.

    To address part of it, there is significant research going into recycling batteries. The batteries are physically a big part of the vehicle. There is a lot of electronics, but physically they are not large; however, electronics nowadays is recycled,  because of the rarity of some physical components ("rare earths" and so on).

    The current deal on batteries is physical reduction and extraction of the valuable parts, essentially as raw substance. However, I understand a lot of work is going into component architectures that enable disassembly. Sort of integrated modular batteries, if you like. If we get to the point at which service centres can swap out underperforming cells, which can then be inexpensively refurbished, then we would be in essentially the situation we are in now with ICE vehicles, except that the motors will last longer and be much cheaper to rebuild. 

    How that will work out in socioeconomic practice, though, is hard to see. It is not out of the question that battery supply and refurbishment becomes a substantial, possibly even the main, part of the automotive industry. Or that, when you buy an EV, you contract separately for the vehicle hull and for its battery. As we do now for the ICE vehicle hull and its energy supply.

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