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How will electric cars 'die'?

Arran Cameron

Has much research been carried out into what happens to electric cars as they age and how they eventually ‘die’?

There are several potential possibilities including:

1 The bodywork rusts away. Theoretically the same as for an ICE car, but will electric cars be on average more or less rust prone than ICE cars due to differences in the internal structure of the bodyshell?

2 Wear to suspension and steering components. Theoretically the same as for an ICE car. A common MOT failure that can be expensive to repair.

3 A catastrophic failure of the inverter and the cost of repair or replacement. Inverters are heavily stressed subassemblies that appear to have a finite life. Will power semiconductors and other components likely to break down with prolonged use be available and realistically replaceable, or will inverters be deliberately designed in order that failed components cannot be economically replaced?

4 Electronic systems failures where replacement is uneconomical. Theoretically similar for a modern ICE car.

5 The battery. High cost of replacement plus potential obsolescence (like try finding a replacement battery for a power tool from the 1990s) could sound the death knell of a 15 year old car that works just as good as the day it was new.

Will electric cars ever reach ‘banger’ status where it's possible to buy a >10 year old car for under £2000 and run it for 2 to 3 years? There are many people who subscribe to bangernomics, for one reason or another, but will it continue into the electric era or will a situation arise where it's impossible to buy a working electric car with a working battery for less than £10,000?

Will electric cars ever reach classic status where it's possible to buy a >25 year old car that can still be driven?

Could a situation arise where governments control the supply of batteries for electric cars and ‘tax’ them in a certain way to make up for the loss in fuel duty?

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    Alex Home: 
     

    “Bangernomics” relies on older cars being perceived as risky purchases - few people want to take that risk hence prices are lower.  The bonus for people willing to take that risk is cheaper motoring.

    The most costly risk when buying an older electric car is the condition of the battery.  In this case, as Peter suggests, a separate contract covering the use of the battery is the way forward.  If the rest of the car (notwithstanding invertors etc) is seen as less risky then I suspect that older electric cars will actually retain their values better than ICE ones, and never reach the £2000 level suggested above.

    After factoring out the battery, it's possible that electric cars could have an expected lifespan of 25 years with rust and general wear and tear finishing them off. Electric cars have fewer critical rubber components (such as hoses and drive belts) than ICE cars which deteriorate with age.

    Mileage should in theory be less of an issue with electric cars than ICE cars. An electric car with 300k of motorway miles will in most cases be in better condition than a car of equal age with 100k of driving over speed bumps in town.

    On the other hand, a situation could occur where electronic modules are prone to failing without warning after 10 years, and are very expensive to replace with the only source of used modules being accident damaged cars. There may be cases of manufacturers offering extended warranties on electronic modules, or even insurance policies that cover the replacement of failed electronic modules.

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    Alex Home: 
     

    “Bangernomics” relies on older cars being perceived as risky purchases - few people want to take that risk hence prices are lower.  The bonus for people willing to take that risk is cheaper motoring.

    The most costly risk when buying an older electric car is the condition of the battery.  In this case, as Peter suggests, a separate contract covering the use of the battery is the way forward.  If the rest of the car (notwithstanding invertors etc) is seen as less risky then I suspect that older electric cars will actually retain their values better than ICE ones, and never reach the £2000 level suggested above.

    After factoring out the battery, it's possible that electric cars could have an expected lifespan of 25 years with rust and general wear and tear finishing them off. Electric cars have fewer critical rubber components (such as hoses and drive belts) than ICE cars which deteriorate with age.

    Mileage should in theory be less of an issue with electric cars than ICE cars. An electric car with 300k of motorway miles will in most cases be in better condition than a car of equal age with 100k of driving over speed bumps in town.

    On the other hand, a situation could occur where electronic modules are prone to failing without warning after 10 years, and are very expensive to replace with the only source of used modules being accident damaged cars. There may be cases of manufacturers offering extended warranties on electronic modules, or even insurance policies that cover the replacement of failed electronic modules.

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