How will electric cars 'die'?

Car buyers in recent years have had a much better deal buying 10 to 15 year old cars than they did back in the 1980s and 90s. 10 to 15 year old cars today do not rust anywhere nearly as badly as cars built in the 1970s and 80s; their technology is still reasonably modern; they are generally better equipped; have better safety and security features; and are usually more reliable without many of the niggling problems that affected older cars in bygone decades.

I can remember back in the 1990s when rusty Vauxhall Cavaliers and Austin Metros that were not even 10 years old were a common sight on roads. Cars with bodykits (half the time covering over welding repairs to corroded sills) were ubiquitous but now they are quite rare. Engines with carburettors and mechanical ignitions were a struggle to start on cold wet mornings as they aged. Cars over 10 years old lacked all the electrical toys we take for granted today and had AM only radios with knobs on them unless they were a high end model, and security features were an afterthought - like those bars that locked onto steering wheels. There was even a joke that one key fitted every Ford!

I read somewhere that despite car buyers now having a much better deal buying used cars than any time in the past, cars are on average younger in Britain today compared with most other European countries and Britain in the 1990s. The reason is the availability cheap finance. Car buyers increasingly choose to take out loans for newer cars rather than buy older cars outright. This has the effect of depressing the market, and ultimately the prices, of older cars. In many European countries, buyers will pay a handsome price for 10 to 15 year old cars in good nick, but there is an unwritten rule that once a car is 10 years old in Britain it's technically a ton of scrap metal unless it's a Rolls Royce or an Aston Martin. Even Mercedes and Porsche are not immune. Insurance companies write off most 10 year old cars even for the most minor scratch.

This scenario could impact on the electric car market. If the government concludes that the majority of people who want to buy cars over 10 years old on the cheap for their daily drive are just the poor and the stingy; people with ruined credit ratings; badge snobs; or stubborn wayward eccentrics, then it will also conclude that Mr Average does not have a need for an old banger costing under £2000 that will last at least 2 or 3 years.

By 2035 it could be the norm that electric cars are leased from manufacturers, or bought on finance with a trade in for scrap deal after 10 years, rather than owned outright. The unemployed; gig economy workers on zero hours contracts; workers with an income topped up by in-work benefits; anybody with a low credit score; and even people with criminal convictions as trivial as a Magistrate Court fine for dropping litter or their children refusing to go into school for one day, do not qualify.

Car buyers in recent years have had a much better deal buying 10 to 15 year old cars than they did back in the 1980s and 90s. 10 to 15 year old cars today do not rust anywhere nearly as badly as cars built in the 1970s and 80s; their technology is still reasonably modern; they are generally better equipped; have better safety and security features; and are usually more reliable without many of the niggling problems that affected older cars in bygone decades.

I can remember back in the 1990s when rusty Vauxhall Cavaliers and Austin Metros that were not even 10 years old were a common sight on roads. Cars with bodykits (half the time covering over welding repairs to corroded sills) were ubiquitous but now they are quite rare. Engines with carburettors and mechanical ignitions were a struggle to start on cold wet mornings as they aged. Cars over 10 years old lacked all the electrical toys we take for granted today and had AM only radios with knobs on them unless they were a high end model, and security features were an afterthought - like those bars that locked onto steering wheels. There was even a joke that one key fitted every Ford!

I read somewhere that despite car buyers now having a much better deal buying used cars than any time in the past, cars are on average younger in Britain today compared with most other European countries and Britain in the 1990s. The reason is the availability cheap finance. Car buyers increasingly choose to take out loans for newer cars rather than buy older cars outright. This has the effect of depressing the market, and ultimately the prices, of older cars. In many European countries, buyers will pay a handsome price for 10 to 15 year old cars in good nick, but there is an unwritten rule that once a car is 10 years old in Britain it's technically a ton of scrap metal unless it's a Rolls Royce or an Aston Martin. Even Mercedes and Porsche are not immune. Insurance companies write off most 10 year old cars even for the most minor scratch.

This scenario could impact on the electric car market. If the government concludes that the majority of people who want to buy cars over 10 years old on the cheap for their daily drive are just the poor and the stingy; people with ruined credit ratings; badge snobs; or stubborn wayward eccentrics, then it will also conclude that Mr Average does not have a need for an old banger costing under £2000 that will last at least 2 or 3 years.

By 2035 it could be the norm that electric cars are leased from manufacturers, or bought on finance with a trade in for scrap deal after 10 years, rather than owned outright. The unemployed; gig economy workers on zero hours contracts; workers with an income topped up by in-work benefits; anybody with a low credit score; and even people with criminal convictions as trivial as a Magistrate Court fine for dropping litter or their children refusing to go into school for one day, do not qualify.