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Adaptation to Climate and Population Change

Many pieces have been written on here by myself and others regarding climate change, how rapid it is and what is the cause. In a way this is immaterial, the climate is changing, has changed and will continue to change and we will have to deal with it. The world population will also continue to increase for the foreseeable future, we will also have to deal with that.

I have recently read Carl Sagen’s Cosmos from around 1980 and Bjørn Lomberg’s The Skeptical Environmentalist from around 2000.

Cosmos was written at the end of the global cooling period in the 1970s and the major concerns were pollution and nuclear war. Global warming wasn’t an issue then.

The Skeptical Environmentalist tries to look at all the numbers behind the various ‘scares’ of the time, pollution, food shortages, lack of water and disease. The very well refenced text shows that overall things are improving, life expectancy is increasing and there is more food available in spite of the population increase. Global warming is discussed with the comment that all the scenarios are based on the worst case predictions, equivalent to today’s RPC8.5. It also notes that the IPCC and other environmental bodies stopped carrying out value analysis and just demand change regardless of cost.

Where do we stand today after another 20 years? I will take this to be before the Ukrainian invasion as this has created a lot of changes that need to be separately discussed.

As I see it very little has changed. A huge amount of hot air has been spoken (maybe the cause of the temperature increase) lots of expensive global conferences have taken place for the not so god and not so great. Nothing concrete has changed. There are no real engineered solutions on offer. There are various ‘renewable’ energy sources, wind, solar PV and biomass which are currently unable to function without subsidies (maybe the currently increasing energy prices will allow self-sufficiency??) The intermittent sources also rely on existing thermal or hydro power generation when they are unable to supply which is a further subsidy.

What should we do, what can we do? As has been suggested on here before a good start point would be to build some more nuclear power plants using more modern designs with good load following rather than the older Pu factories, reinforce the electricity distribution system and improve the insulation of existing buildings. I agree with Insulate Britain’s concept but not with their implementation. Loft insulation is one of the simplest improvements with a good payback (maybe less than one year in the current situation). Why did Insulate Britain simply cause disruption rather than looking for the roadblocks (information, regulations, lack of trained installers etc.) and clearing them?

The governments seem to jump from one idea to the next with no real thought or planning. Diesel is Good, Diesel is Bad, Subsidise Renewables, Don’t Subsidise Renewables, Fit Heat Pumps, etc.

As a side thought would it be a better use of resources to insulate my house to reduce the heat loss to 1/3 and use direct electric heating than to just install a heat pump with an average COP of 3? Please discuss.

Is there a population limit? According to the data in the Skeptical Environmentalist as developing countries develop and become more wealthy the birth rate drops, maybe we reach 10 Billion people as a maximum. Can we deal with this? Just burning more finite resources is probably not the solution. Thanos’s solution is probably also not acceptable.

Lots of questions and lots of engineering opportunities to be taken up but I don’t see any real work being done. The IET posts various politically correct position statements but doesn’t seem to do any actual engineering. Questions that they should be answering are ones like:

            If we migrate 50% of our transport to EVs how much new power generation is required?

            If we migrate 50% of our domestic heating to electricity, either directly or through heat pumps, how much new power generation is required?

            How much of that power is simultaneously required? Will people charge their vehicles and heat their houses at the same time?

            How can we reinforce the local electrical distribution system without digging up every street? (Maybe feed the existing cables from both ends??)

Do you have any other realistic engineering solutions?

  • higher voltages - the 400V to neutral 690 phase-phase or 690 to neutral 1k2 phase-phase seen abroad might allow local distribution to be upped a bit in power without too excessive cable relaying and cable losses lower. But there would be some transformers to install at the ends of the streets or per group of houses and their losses would need to be considered. . note that we aready do feed street mains from both ends in some parts of the country  with heavy load density - parts of London are more of a mesh than the text book radials - this does cause a higher PSSC so certain types of accidents are more likely there is no free lunch

    Mike.

  • How can we reinforce the local electrical distribution system without digging up every street? (Maybe feed the existing cables from both ends??)

    The gas people have already dug up my street replacing leaky old cast iron gas mains.  The electricity cables must also be over 50 years old.  It's about time they got upgraded.  We pay enough in standing charges.

  • Insulate, insulate, insulate; which may include warm winter clothing like we always used to do. Insulating the body is easier and cheaper than insulating a dwelling.

  • I doubt that electricity demand will increase that much. Not many years ago, peak UK demand reached about 51 GW in the winter, last winter it was IIRC ABOUT 46 GW. So distribution should still be able to cope with a 10% increase.

    The impact of electric vehicles is exaggerated. Most manage an average of four miles per kwh. And are used for an average of 40 miles a day. So an average charging demand of about 10 kwh a day per vehicle. 1 kw per vehicle if charging is spread over 10 hours a night.

    For ten million such vehicles say 10 GW, Readily available overnight when the load is less. Some daytime charging will be needed, easily achieved by adding more embedded solar generation. The default limit for grid tied PV should in my view be increased.

    As regards local LV distribution, adding extra 11 kv substations is not that hard and is routinely done as part of new developments. If LV street mains are inadequate, one solution is to install a new main along the same road. All new and upgraded services to be connected to this new main. Thereby increasing capacity without jointing large numbers of existing services to the new main.

  • Small EV cars are excellent as inner city run-abouts but for lorries and large motorway vehicles petrol and diesel are most certainly the best option.  Not only is the vehicle cost and weight reduced and battery materials saved but the time waiting to recharge is; as now, at a  minimum.

    It is also probably cheaper in winter to use liquid hydrocarbons as a litre of fuel produces 10 kWh of energy for £1.60p meaning even at 50% efficiency in heat losses it costs just 32p per unit kWh.  Not sure if the grid can compete?. 

    We cannot avoid climate change now the polar ice is already melting, so will have to learn to live with that; but by all means we must reduce using energy use to an absolute minimum. 

    Double insulate homes,  switch off upstairs central heating and wear woolly nightwear and clothing. SAVE THE PLANET

  • Persuading the young to wear warm clothes will be a struggle. Whole house heating to 24 degrees and wearing shorts and t shirt in winter seems to have become a basic human right.

    Suggesting that lower indoor temperatures could be countered by wearing a vest were greeted with horror. And as for long johns I suspect that some of the young would die rather than wear long underwear.

    And as for warm nightwear "as bad as slippers" was one of the more polite remarks. A long nightshirt in thick brushed cotton would be too terrible to even contemplate.

  • A free holiday in Siberia would quickly update their outlook on how to dress for winter !!

  • I have a solution. Burn coal, its easy and affordable.

    CO2 is just fine and not the cause of so called climate change.

    Green madness has brought us to our impending doom.

    I'm off to glue myself to a solar panel or wind turbine until someone listens to science and not ipcc flawed modelling.

  • https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/09/02/greenhouse-efficiency/

    Compelling analysis by Willis.

  • Broadgauge (7' 1/4" ?)

    I am not sure how realistic your EV numbers are. I chose 50% of vehicles based on the governments planned phase out of new IC engined vehicles by 2035. This means that the high milage vehicles will be the first to be replaced and they are also the ones where the owner will  gain most benefits from an EV.

    Taking your figure of 10 kwh per day for 10 million cars this is around 35 TWh per year which is a bit more than 10% of the UKs total generation of around 300 TWh.

    The total number of cars in the UK is around 30 million so half of these will require 52.5 TWh and if the high milage users are significant this number will be increased further. It is hard to judge what is realistic which Is why I raised the question for deeper analysis.

    Is 10GW free capacity really readily available overnight? What about the simultaneous move to electric heating (via heat pumps) and cooking? This will be fighting for the same free capacity, hence the reason for my third question.