How likely are rota power cuts this winter in UK?

What is the general view among members as to the probability of planned or rota power cuts in the UK this winter. I refer here not to random breakdowns caused by extreme weather etc, but to planned rota cuts due to lack of generating capacity, or of fuel to run that capacity.

Forecasts seem to range from "we are doomed" to "it will be fine"

It seems to me that generating capacity is sufficient, but that supplies of natural gas to run that capacity may be insufficient.

I expect rota power cuts but only on a limited scale, perhaps about 5% of peak demand, and then only during adverse conditions, not all winter. I expect that electricity shortages will be worse in Europe, and that imports from Europe into the UK may therefore not be available. 

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