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How likely are rota power cuts this winter in UK?

broadgage

What is the general view among members as to the probability of planned or rota power cuts in the UK this winter. I refer here not to random breakdowns caused by extreme weather etc, but to planned rota cuts due to lack of generating capacity, or of fuel to run that capacity.

Forecasts seem to range from "we are doomed" to "it will be fine"

It seems to me that generating capacity is sufficient, but that supplies of natural gas to run that capacity may be insufficient.

I expect rota power cuts but only on a limited scale, perhaps about 5% of peak demand, and then only during adverse conditions, not all winter. I expect that electricity shortages will be worse in Europe, and that imports from Europe into the UK may therefore not be available. 

  • Updated news report here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63118574  More strongly worded than the earlier report, and is also on the front page rather than being confined to the business section.

    Specifically mentions risk of power cuts.

  • This report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63118574 Is rather doomerish. It refers to a "significant risk" of a gas supply emergency this winter with supplies to gas fired power stations at risk.

    Apart from power cuts, this could result in gas burning power station owners going bust. They have to pay compensation if they are unable to supply the electricity that they promised. Fines of several hundred million pounds PER DAY could be payable.

  • From what I'm reading it's a phased process, they will ask the largest users to essentially cut back or switch off for portions of time, in order to provide as much stability for residential homes as they can, for as long as they can. 

    Problem is, that isn't a long term solution.

    Everyone really needs to play their part in reducing consumption, even then I'm sceptical at the amount that will do as for every one person cutting back, there's always someone else turning the heating up with a 'stuff everyone' kind of attitude. 

  • We haven't quite reached the nadir of the 1970s, but with the benefits (?) of Brexit yet to materialise, and the after effects of covid, and Government policy, I think that people may well learn to be more careful about how much fuel they consume. So I don't expect power cuts in UK.

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