Is the Myth that Wind Power is Cheap Being Exposed?

In the UK there were no takers for Offshore Wind Power at £44/MWh.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms

The suppliers are suggesting a 70% increase in the strike price is required.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/25/electricity-prices-rise-70pc-pay-wind-farms-energy/

In the USA Wind Power Contracts are being cancelled/abandoned unless the price is very significantly increased.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/30/orsted-shares-fall-troubles-us-business-wind-power

All the Wind Turbine manufacturers are in trouble.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/27/is-crisis-at-siemens-energy-symptom-of-a-wider-wind-power-problem

The workable strike price for new Offshore Wind is now similar to that for new Nuclear, noting that Nuclear does not require additional subsides to deal with intermittency. 

As the quantities of basic raw materials, concrete, steel, etc. for 3GW of nuclear appear to be less than required for 3GW of wind with a 30% capacity factor nuclear seems the sensible option. New design nuclear has a design life of 60-80 years rather than 20 – 30 years for wind (but no one really knows).

Why are we still wasting money on wind power?

Parents
  • Take care with the comparisons.

    Nuclear has not been below £50 per megawatt-hour since well before 2010, Sizewell C is predicated on a strike price of  £89.50 at 2013 prices and Hinkley C if and when it finished is inflation linked to something like £92.5 at 2012 prices, whatever that would be today, probably well over £120.

     also note that the production cost of gas fired power stations  is bouncing a  lot but in winter is a few hundred quid per MWH, but with occasional eyewatering peaks https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/09/national-grid-pays-high-price-for-gas-generated-power-during-uk-cold-snap.

    Or looking further back..

    And there is one certainty, fossil fuels will eventually run out, as we are using them many orders of magnitude faster than they were initially created.

    So maybe the strike price  bar for wind generation should be raised a little too to nearer the typical price rather than just a fraction of it ?

    Also it is quite fun to see which countries are clearly in gas production decline, and which are still discovering more reserves . Right now the planet as a whole is more or less on a bumpy plateau with about 50 years of gas left at current burn rate - which will not happen, the price will rise until demand destruction occurs once output starts to seriously decline so probably the last gas to come out will be very valuable and be eked out to be used very slowly.

    https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-natural-gas.pdf

    Within the lifetime of current and new wind turbines (20-30 years depends who you believe), I expect the global gas picture to change quite dramatically.

    Mike

Reply
  • Take care with the comparisons.

    Nuclear has not been below £50 per megawatt-hour since well before 2010, Sizewell C is predicated on a strike price of  £89.50 at 2013 prices and Hinkley C if and when it finished is inflation linked to something like £92.5 at 2012 prices, whatever that would be today, probably well over £120.

     also note that the production cost of gas fired power stations  is bouncing a  lot but in winter is a few hundred quid per MWH, but with occasional eyewatering peaks https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/09/national-grid-pays-high-price-for-gas-generated-power-during-uk-cold-snap.

    Or looking further back..

    And there is one certainty, fossil fuels will eventually run out, as we are using them many orders of magnitude faster than they were initially created.

    So maybe the strike price  bar for wind generation should be raised a little too to nearer the typical price rather than just a fraction of it ?

    Also it is quite fun to see which countries are clearly in gas production decline, and which are still discovering more reserves . Right now the planet as a whole is more or less on a bumpy plateau with about 50 years of gas left at current burn rate - which will not happen, the price will rise until demand destruction occurs once output starts to seriously decline so probably the last gas to come out will be very valuable and be eked out to be used very slowly.

    https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-natural-gas.pdf

    Within the lifetime of current and new wind turbines (20-30 years depends who you believe), I expect the global gas picture to change quite dramatically.

    Mike

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