Power grid outage prediction and duration estimation

Hi everyone, 

I would appreciate if someone who can offer help on the following:

Is there any specific AI tool (preferably free or trial version) from the companies or someone else that can be used for grid power outage prediction and duration estimation? On my estate, there is nuisance power trips from the grid, and standby generators crank to supply the power to the estate. Again, generators stop when the grid supplies the power after running few minutes at the moment. I am looking to get the best average duration even if grid power supply is back to keep generators running. This will help avoid parts such as MCCB, motor mechanism and others of generators failure too frequently. It would also save carbon footprints etc. 

It can be based on past trends such as outage time, duration and months etc

  • I'm not aware of an AI tool but if you're looking for duration might not traditional statistical analysis be sufficient for this purpose? Assuming you have the historic data, at least in the first instance you can probably get "good enough" information from a few hours playing with the numbers. Personally I would trust this more than an AI anyway.

    If you don't have the data then I would start there. Neither traditional approaches nor AI will give you an accurate insight without it; outages will be entirely dependent on site-specific factors. If you don't already have something as well as making a point to note start/stop times it might be that your network operator is able to provide information, or you might be able to piece it together from metering information, relay timestamped info, server logs etc.

    It is worth noting in any analysis that you are probably experiencing several different types of outage, from transient dips to planned maintenance work, which have independent causality, frequency and duration.

  • Thanks Jam :) 

  • I think I can say with confidence that if there was any tool of any type  that could do this well, the DNOs would be the first to form a queue use it, so they could send their repair teams out to fix things before, rather than after, they go wrong. Sadly there isn't so they settle for planned inspections and upgrades to bits of their networks they know are struggling, and having a team of folk 'on call' for anything  else that crops up unplanned.

    As Jam has alluded, any  computer "tool" is as good or incomplete as the data you feed it on, and while some things are known, such as the age and type of cable runs, and how close some parts of the networks are to being overloaded, a lot of things, like how much it will snow this winter and if a car will crash into a lamp post tonight, or if it prefers to hit a tree instead, are to all intents and purposes a matter of total  chance.

    It is possible to plan in a budgetary sense- and the DNOs do that - they buy up enough cable, transformers jointing kits tools etc knowing that later this year or fairly soon, it will be needed, but then occasionally something goes really badly wrong, and the plan is out of the window,

    Mike

    PS almost on-topic,, have you read this 'tale of the unexpected' a salutary lesson in not planning for what actually happened.

    https://raeng.org.uk/media/xrrigg0m/raeng-living-without-electricity.pdf about Lancaster's loss of power a few years ago.

    To be successful any (emergency) planner needs to learn from events like this and be able to handle them.