Proof is in the facts. Only 37% of viewing of video content is now consumed in the UK from linear services and that is actually a combination of IP streaming and Broadcast, so the usage of Broadcast services is certainly more than a few percentage lower than that.

The trendline on the consumption data of linear goes to zero within 12 years (yes it is declining THAT quickly), although that would be factually incorrect to assume that as it will always be expected for linear consumption to exist for live events and for content discovery, however a bet is running amongst many in the industry as to where that asymptote for linear will actually lie. In reality that will depend very much on the popularity of Sports consumption, as the big stand out live event, in the country concerned. So in the US it may be close to 10% but in less sports centric countries it may be down to 2 to 3% of viewing hours. There is also the view that the decline will be quicker as the rate of change in viewing is accelerating down.

Earlier this year, OFCOM published its report about IP transition admitting very clearly that the big challenge for the industry regarding Broadcast is that it is approaching not being financially viable now and that will define the rapidity of the tipping point in the same way that the financial viability of transport fuel distribution will define the tipping point for electric vehicles. We await with interest the result of the work being done now on how TV Broadcasting will be sunset in the UK.

Ian Nock said:

In reality that will depend very much on the popularity of Sports consumption, as the big stand out live event, in the country concerned.

And even then I'm guessing there'll be a demographic involved - there will be those who would prefer / be more used to livestreaming rather than picking up the broadcast - so still seeing it in (near enough) real time but not through the broadcast signal? There's the social factor of seeing it as live as possible, which is important, but it doesn't need to be broadcast to do so.

If we were to start from here (i.e. with the technology we have available now), and suggest the two options of broadcasting or streaming (i.e. available on demand anytime from a second after the event onwards) I'd suggest we wouldn't even consider broadcasting - what's the benefit to the supplier or the customer? Do we watch broadcasts because it's a better experience (and just now is a time of year when my wife and I do watch quite a lot of broadcasts) or is it just habit? I'll bet there's been a huge amount of research papers on this...

Ian Nock said:

In reality that will depend very much on the popularity of Sports consumption, as the big stand out live event, in the country concerned.

And even then I'm guessing there'll be a demographic involved - there will be those who would prefer / be more used to livestreaming rather than picking up the broadcast - so still seeing it in (near enough) real time but not through the broadcast signal? There's the social factor of seeing it as live as possible, which is important, but it doesn't need to be broadcast to do so.

If we were to start from here (i.e. with the technology we have available now), and suggest the two options of broadcasting or streaming (i.e. available on demand anytime from a second after the event onwards) I'd suggest we wouldn't even consider broadcasting - what's the benefit to the supplier or the customer? Do we watch broadcasts because it's a better experience (and just now is a time of year when my wife and I do watch quite a lot of broadcasts) or is it just habit? I'll bet there's been a huge amount of research papers on this...

Absolutely there is a lot of research done in this area.

Demographics is an interesting subject for modes of consumption - largely because the population who focused on traditional linear consumption are now aging out (apologies but this is an industry phrase for 'passing away' or adopting behaviours attributed to younger groups). Certainly considering that those who 'came of age' in the home computer era are now in their late 50s and 60s, these have adopted Internet consumption as readily as younger groups mostly driven by pervasive and higher quality home broadband.

And you are correct - that thought exercise of 'if it was invented today' has been played out, and certainly having a single infrastructure broadband network first would have meant that Broadcast over the air, Cable TV and even PVRs would not exist. Same with landline telephones - they have gone through a transition that will abruptly change at the beginning of 2027 - in that by that point most will only have mobile telephony (such that anyone even makes phone calls anymore).

The single network approach also has major in home benefits that have driven adoption - you don't need an antenna, dedicated cabling and extra ports in fixed positions in your house - WiFi works very well to distribute from the fixed line entry point to anywhere you want to consume it in the house. Also most people own their own personal screens that have completely replaced the old 15" TV in the back room / bedroom scenarios.