In the first year it did 6000 miles, enough to justify it’s existence, but if I had gone for an EV it probably wouldn’t pay back in my remaining driving years.

This Reuters article from a few years ago suggests that the break even point could be somewhere between 9,200 miles (entirely renewable grid) and 14,800 miles (for a mixed generation grid, US style in that example). A lot of variables in there of course, and things should tend to improve (e.g. as the grid greens and battery manufacturing improves) but overall it looks like carbon payback should be well within a typical vehicle's lifespan.

With the current high monetary price of batteries, the financial benefit is less clear cut. Most of the initial government subsidies on purchase price seem to have dried up now for ordinary private cars (in the UK at least), and they're relying more on imposing quotas on manufacturers (i.e. a fine if a certain proportion of new cars they sell aren't electric - so the manufacturers are being obliged to discount EVs (in effect using ICE sales to compensate).

There are also some other barriers to adoption - charging, especially for those without their own off-street parking, can be problematic - public charge points are still seen as expensive, sparse and/or unreliable. Most car-type EVs aren't capable of towing a caravan or other trailer (at least not for a sensible distance), so there's another chunk of the market that's lost.

Niche? My feeling is no - it's getting there, but it will take time. In some areas I see maybe 10% of cars have green patches on their reg plates - so I think it's beyond niche already. I suspect the tipping point will come when 40%-60% of cars are electric, then petrol stations will start closing down in significant numbers and charging at home (or on street if there are local facilities) will be easier than having to drive to an increasingly distant location to fill up.

   - Andy.

In the first year it did 6000 miles, enough to justify it’s existence, but if I had gone for an EV it probably wouldn’t pay back in my remaining driving years.

This Reuters article from a few years ago suggests that the break even point could be somewhere between 9,200 miles (entirely renewable grid) and 14,800 miles (for a mixed generation grid, US style in that example). A lot of variables in there of course, and things should tend to improve (e.g. as the grid greens and battery manufacturing improves) but overall it looks like carbon payback should be well within a typical vehicle's lifespan.

With the current high monetary price of batteries, the financial benefit is less clear cut. Most of the initial government subsidies on purchase price seem to have dried up now for ordinary private cars (in the UK at least), and they're relying more on imposing quotas on manufacturers (i.e. a fine if a certain proportion of new cars they sell aren't electric - so the manufacturers are being obliged to discount EVs (in effect using ICE sales to compensate).

There are also some other barriers to adoption - charging, especially for those without their own off-street parking, can be problematic - public charge points are still seen as expensive, sparse and/or unreliable. Most car-type EVs aren't capable of towing a caravan or other trailer (at least not for a sensible distance), so there's another chunk of the market that's lost.

Niche? My feeling is no - it's getting there, but it will take time. In some areas I see maybe 10% of cars have green patches on their reg plates - so I think it's beyond niche already. I suspect the tipping point will come when 40%-60% of cars are electric, then petrol stations will start closing down in significant numbers and charging at home (or on street if there are local facilities) will be easier than having to drive to an increasingly distant location to fill up.

   - Andy.

This is quite an interesting report from Polestar on footprint and breakeven for similar ICE and Electric cars.

https://www.polestar.com/dato-assets/11286/1600176185-20200915polestarlcafinala.pdf

It is well written and the assumptions and sources are stated. The two key diagrams are these:

The first shows the large influence of the electricity source for EVs  and the second expected breakeven mileage for various sources. Taking the EU28 mix gives a breakeven of around 78 000 km which I probably won’t reach. If I take into account that  Swiss electricity is predominately nuclear and hydro I could probably reduce that number a bit.

The Polestar 2/V40 are bigger and more expensive than I would choose, but quality small EVs are not so common, the manufacturers have concentrated on the high end.

Does anyone know of any more well documents life cycle comparisons?

Hello Roger:

I am not doubting the quality of the Polerstar data but I noticed that it was developed on the 2020 models.

A lot of things have happened in the world since 2020.

I notice a recent trend on social media (like youtube) involving the authors claims that "the sky is falling",  by them using old 2023 (or older) newspaper articles. 

One thing that I recently saw on DW news was the effect of lack of snow in the Swiss Alps - I now questioning the amount of water supporting the hydroelectric systems.

Peter Brooks

Palm Bay Florida