How will the electric vehicle market really develop?

Our governments are trying hard and spending large amounts of taxpayers money to promote electric vehicles but the uptake is nowhere near what is wanted. They are now looking at penalties to reduce the sale of ICE vehicles and force the purchase of EVs.

Will this really work? The current result will be more imports of EVs from China which will increase the vehicles pollution footprint both by the coal  used to supply the energy for manufacture and shipping half way round the world.

What is the real goal? Artificially increasing the rate of EV take up greatly increases the short term emissions.  There probably is a reasonable payback on a high/very high milage vehicle. For others there may not be a payback. I chose to buy a new small petrol car. In the first year it did 6000 miles, enough to justify it’s existence, but if I had gone for an EV it probably wouldn’t pay back in my remaining driving years.

Is the goal of replacing IC engines with electric motor realistic in view of the resources required? How far does it go, cars, commercial vehicles, agricultural machines, construction machinery, aircraft, ships? There are most definitely excellent niches for EVs, especially now the range (both choice and distance) and quality are improving and there has been a significant build up in charging infrastructure. I see quite a few electric commercial vehicles during my 15 minute walk home, generally on local area deliveries although the Swiss Post seems to be trialing a longer range articulated version. I am also happy when they use the EV for the early morning deliveries at the local supermarkets.

What does the panel think? Will there be a wide rollout or will EVs remain a niche product?

Parents
  • Hello Roger:

    I am currently in the market to replace my 24 year old car. However I do not plan to buy an EV!

    Why? The current EV battery construction is not safe enough. There are far too many battery fires and salt water flooding now requires one to junk the car. 

    I suspect that auto insurance company in Florida will start to impose additional costs on EV's to cover the salt water flooding problem.

    Also the loss of gasoline based taxes, that are currently used to maintain the road systems, have resulted in some States already applying additional yearly registration charges for EV's

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida.

  • Hello Andy:

    The combustion problem on gasoline based cars is usually found on Asian manufactured products.I wouldn't have one even if they gave it away.

    The amount of water (even with possible additives) used to put a fire out on EV's is considerably higher than that used on a gasoline based car.. Just imagine if you have a EV fire on a remote highway> 

    The 10X-100X value you quoted maybe invalid and just reflect the ratio of gasoline to EV vehicles.

    Another EV problem is the danger of the high voltages used within the car.

    If I lived in (say) Canada there maybe a low temperature operating problem.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida 

     

  • When the multi-storey car park at Luton airport was burned down by a car catching fire, the anti-EV brigade had a field day, calling for them to be banned.

    Then the fire brigade released their report.  It was a diesel car.  We've since found out it was a Range Rover.

    Internal conbustion engine cars catching fire is so comman an event that it rarely even makes the news.  It's certainly not far Eastern ones.  The Vaulhall Corsa D gained a reputation for catching fire without warning.

  • Any car that has been flooded by salty water is scrap.  Even if you can get it running again, it won't be long before the electrics fail.

    If you want to know why, there's a series of videos on YouTube by Tavarish, as he slowly restores a flood damaged McLaren P1.  The amount of time and money spent repairing that car is immense.  Any other car would have been worthless scrap.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJNqj_QNkWM&list=PLrvMJaD0-PucEO6E4RdNErcO-_Lko5gdh

    It's taken 16 episodes to even get the engine running again!

  • The problem with EVs is that if charged up normally from the grid then the grid must be green or we have no advantage.

    In fact, we have a disadvantage as IC engines can be built locally, need no rare earth element, easy to refuel and  are 50% fuel efficient if driven carefully matching the grid which struggles to get 50% and then has huge transmission losses and infrastructure maintenance costs as addons.

    Most important is to green the grid first by installing 25 GW of nuclear and develop economical alternative to hydrocarbon fuels even coal maybe considered.  Certainly any idea that large trucks will be replaced by electrics ones will not be achievable by 2050.

  • Hello Simon:

    I am talking about the cars here in the US.

    Diesel powered passenger cars are not a thing here in the US. Diesel is usually used only for Trucks.

    Diesel is a lot more expensive that the lowest grade of gasoline. 

    We do see a few gasoline powered BMW mini's running around but they have experienced oil related engine problems in the past.

    I have also seen a few Range Rovers but again they are gasoline powered.  

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida 

      

  • Hello Simon:

    It should be noted that cars flooded with fresh water - salt makies the water conducive - do not automatically have to be scrapped.

    We also have "high riding" vehicles that are used for extracting people and animals from deep flooded areas. 

    Then around here we have a lot  of the famous Florida Air Boats that are used in the swamps.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL. 

  • Hello Clive:

    I agree with you, that unless the electric grid is fully power by green energy then it is a meaningless effort.

    Once a year my power company supplies us with a list of fuel sources as a percentage of the total electrical output. The majority of the output is still produced with gas. Solar energy is still increasing, but is still a minor factor.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay 

  • Gas is top fuel  in the UK as well, but these days only just true when averaged over the year -  in calm winter weather like now, the gas gets hammered, while in the summer we barely need it.

    https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ shows the spot data as well as the long term graphs.

    In contrast, France of course is mostly nuclear...

    https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/

    Germany has no nuclear to speak of but more solar in the summer.

    https://www.agora-energiewende.org/data-tools/agorameter/chart/today/power_generation/01.12.2023/30.11.2024/monthly

    It all rather depends where you are. It may not yet be all green but if all it does is make the remaining gas last a decade or two longer and increase the fraction of the year when we are not a net importer, then in terms of security, economy, and future generally, that has all got to be good.

    Mike.

  • The 10X-100X value you quoted maybe invalid and just reflect the ratio of gasoline to EV vehicles.

    The numbers quoted seem to comparing the number of EV fires divided by the number of EVs, compared to the number of ICE fires divided by the number of ICE vehicles, so the approach seems valid. There may be other factors of course - e.g. EVs will tend to be newer than ICEs on average at the moment, so fires due to the ageing of insulation or rubber hoses might not yet be proportional (but that said, many ICE fires seem to be with pretty new vehicles).

    www.topgear.com reckons it's around 20x

       - Andy.

  • Hello Andy:

    The only family owned ICE vehicle that ever caught fire, was a very old US manufactured Carburetor based vehicle that had a fuel hose leak. The fire was only a minor one and was easy to put out.

    If you watch recent smart phone produced videos from China (if can ever believe anything from China) they seem to have an excessive number of EV fires in parking lots and in traffic.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida   

Reply
  • Hello Andy:

    The only family owned ICE vehicle that ever caught fire, was a very old US manufactured Carburetor based vehicle that had a fuel hose leak. The fire was only a minor one and was easy to put out.

    If you watch recent smart phone produced videos from China (if can ever believe anything from China) they seem to have an excessive number of EV fires in parking lots and in traffic.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida   

Children
  • The only family owned ICE vehicle that ever caught fire,

    Do you mean your particular family? If so that's rather a small sample size.

      - Andy.

  • Hello Andy:

    I had countless cars in both Canada and US reaching a maximum of four at one time when my two kids reached driving age.

    If you will remember from 1960's to 2000"s car engines only really lasted for about  80,000 miles. I used to drive that amount in about 18 months.

    I have driven from the US east coast to the west coast (about 3,000+ miles in 4 days) a number of times.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL