How will the electric vehicle market really develop?

Our governments are trying hard and spending large amounts of taxpayers money to promote electric vehicles but the uptake is nowhere near what is wanted. They are now looking at penalties to reduce the sale of ICE vehicles and force the purchase of EVs.

Will this really work? The current result will be more imports of EVs from China which will increase the vehicles pollution footprint both by the coal  used to supply the energy for manufacture and shipping half way round the world.

What is the real goal? Artificially increasing the rate of EV take up greatly increases the short term emissions.  There probably is a reasonable payback on a high/very high milage vehicle. For others there may not be a payback. I chose to buy a new small petrol car. In the first year it did 6000 miles, enough to justify it’s existence, but if I had gone for an EV it probably wouldn’t pay back in my remaining driving years.

Is the goal of replacing IC engines with electric motor realistic in view of the resources required? How far does it go, cars, commercial vehicles, agricultural machines, construction machinery, aircraft, ships? There are most definitely excellent niches for EVs, especially now the range (both choice and distance) and quality are improving and there has been a significant build up in charging infrastructure. I see quite a few electric commercial vehicles during my 15 minute walk home, generally on local area deliveries although the Swiss Post seems to be trialing a longer range articulated version. I am also happy when they use the EV for the early morning deliveries at the local supermarkets.

What does the panel think? Will there be a wide rollout or will EVs remain a niche product?

Parents
  • I think its a difficult thing to predict. How could have predicted where we are now , say 50 years ago?

    The one thing I would say, is that its likely to be driven by the growth markets. That isn't western Europe and the US those are mature markets. We are already seeing some very capable cars coming out of China (and can be higher quality then some from established makes).

    Fusion power will definitely be an enabler if anyone can make it work since much of the issue is energy.

    What you can rely on is that the current technologies will keep on progressing, electric range will improve, charging times will drop, the ability of a car to self-drive will keep on improving.

    Its interesting that you pick up on imports of EVs from China, because I suspect that 100% of European car makes source Chinese made parts and its only assembly that occurs in Europe (I know for sure that this it the case for some makes). So there isn't much difference in shipping a car if you are already shipping most the parts.

    Now who remembers the electric milk float which was pretty common once upon a time?

  • Hello Roger:

    The ones I remember in London did not have a cab structure but were guided by the milkman walking ahead of the electric powered section.

    Milk Glass bottles were locally recycled (washed) and reused. 

    Here where I live, glass containers are not recycled.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL

Reply
  • Hello Roger:

    The ones I remember in London did not have a cab structure but were guided by the milkman walking ahead of the electric powered section.

    Milk Glass bottles were locally recycled (washed) and reused. 

    Here where I live, glass containers are not recycled.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL

Children
  • Here where I live, glass containers are not recycled.

    You're joking? We've had glass and paper recycling for at least 30 years (if only skip sized bins in supermarket car parks to start with) and  normal kerbside refuse collections started recycling glass, paper and metal (tin cans) at least a decade and a half ago. Most now accept rigid plastics as well now and a few soft plastics and even tetrapacks'. And that's ignoring all the WW II  "salvage" schemes.

       - Andy..

  • that's ignoring all the WW II  "salvage" schemes.

    to be fair, most of those have been superseded,

    But it is interesting how fast things change, back in 1993 I was part of a team that took some Scouts from the group I helped with at that time from Essex to Kandersteg in Switzerland, and two things surprised me during that visit that now don't.

    One was petrol priced in litres, when were still using gallons - not a surprise exactly more of a confusion, and the other was that on the campsite all the waste was separated, glass, metal, paper& card and food waste. I do remember thinking that while a good idea it would never be possible in the UK - well of  course it was and everyone was issued with extra bins and within a decade we were all doing it - now we just need all the  local authorities to have a common scheme for what goes in each bin.

    I was not at all surprised that my UK debit card could get Swiss francs out of a cash machine halfway up a mountainside, but some of the older leaders in the party were impressed.

    Progress.

    Mike.

  • The garbage is collected by a private company which is hired by the City.

    Periodically the contract goes from one company to another.

    We used to be able to recycle glass bottles etc but the new latest company sees glass as a problem during sorting as they are usually broken by the time they get them.

    Maybe the problem is really that no one wants crushed glass anymore. Crushed glass used to be used in the production of new glass - for example glass used in making Osram filament light bulbs.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL

  • Concerning visiting Switzerland and experiencing a different way of life from that in the UK.

    I first visited Switzerland on a school sponsored trip in 1949 - It had a tremendous impact on me!

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida 

  • The other key to the Swiss recycling system is that you have to pay to dispose of anything that cannot be recycled. It either goes in a special bag that you have to buy or in a normal bin bag with a special sticker again that you have to buy, 35 litre CHF 0.90. Anything too big for that has to be taken to the local recycling centre where they take it at CHF 0.40 per kg with a minimum charge of CHF 2.

    There are 'Rubbish Police' who will check incorrectly disposed of rubbish and if they can identify it as yours you will be fined.

    Busted! On patrol with the Swiss ‘rubbish police’ - SWI swissinfo.ch