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Can GenAI give accurate results for chaotic systems and black swan events?

Peter Brooks

This morning (March 19 2025) I attended an IEEE virtual meeting titled "Demystifying GenAI for Telehealth"

One of the attendees was a Surgeon, who made the following statement concerning his major concern about "over reliance" on the output from Gen AI Healthcare systems:-

"THE HUMAN BODY IS A CHAOTIC MACHINE!"  

To me this a critical detail that engineers fail to understand about Heathcare.  

  

   

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  • I'm a bit skeptical on black Swan theory.

    The definition given by Nassim Taleb is: The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.

    To me, if you're accepting that black swan events exist then you're simply acknowledging that your model of probability distribution is wrong.  Nobody, in the financial markets now believes that price movements follow a normal distribution - they have fat tails. This is a sign of active manipulation and corruption in my opinion which is to be somewhat expected when considering human factors.  Do fat tail distributions or black swan really exist in purely natural systems?

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