AJJewsbury:
The point of self-isolation is to delay and flatten the curve - accept that most people will still get infected, but the numbers turning up at hospital per day won't be (too) overwhelmingly large. Also, delaying buys time to to manufacture more PPE, ventilators, construct temporary hospitals, train staff etc. Finally, the idea is that vulnerable people will be kept self-isolated for months. By the time they're "let out", most of the "healthy" population will have been been infected, recovered, and will now be providing herd immunity.
Agreed. But the thing that worries me is how long do you have to stretch things out to achieve that? I tried some very (very) rough calculations - presuming things like 2.5% of victims will need intensive care, a massive increase in ICU capacity (including the new Nightingale and a few equivalents elsewhere - and presuming they can find all the extra ICU staff) and hopelessly hopeful assumptions like you can regulate things so every ICU unit is kept exactly at capacity - and for the UK sized population concluded that the process would take around 18 months - which seems like a lot more than the 3-weeks to 3-months that's often talked about - and an awful long time for most of the economy to be kept shutdown.
AJJewsbury:
The point of self-isolation is to delay and flatten the curve - accept that most people will still get infected, but the numbers turning up at hospital per day won't be (too) overwhelmingly large. Also, delaying buys time to to manufacture more PPE, ventilators, construct temporary hospitals, train staff etc. Finally, the idea is that vulnerable people will be kept self-isolated for months. By the time they're "let out", most of the "healthy" population will have been been infected, recovered, and will now be providing herd immunity.
Agreed. But the thing that worries me is how long do you have to stretch things out to achieve that? I tried some very (very) rough calculations - presuming things like 2.5% of victims will need intensive care, a massive increase in ICU capacity (including the new Nightingale and a few equivalents elsewhere - and presuming they can find all the extra ICU staff) and hopelessly hopeful assumptions like you can regulate things so every ICU unit is kept exactly at capacity - and for the UK sized population concluded that the process would take around 18 months - which seems like a lot more than the 3-weeks to 3-months that's often talked about - and an awful long time for most of the economy to be kept shutdown.
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