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Recently, Roger Batten, one of our exec team members was in print - his letter appeared in the New Civil Engineer magazine, which is the official magazine of the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE). For over 50 years, NCE has been the leading resource for civil engineering news and analysis, industry comment, technical features, product innovations and job opportunities.


Roger and I got to talking about this after one of our committee meetings, and we thought that it would be of interest to members of  our online community.   Roger agreed to slightly expand on his letter and I would upload as a blog posting on our community area - fascinating topic and I hope  may start some interesting discussion.   Please do feel free to post your thoughts in the comment box below - look forward to reading them.

As well as all the discussions being held on Infrastructure renewal and resilience which, in the UK, include Heathrow, High Speed 2 and Hinkley there is also the pressing matter of global warming. However, the real elephant in the room is population growth. For thousands of years population grew only slowly but in recent years it has jumped dramatically. Between 1900 and 2000 the increase in world population was three times greater than in the entire previous history of humanity, an increase from 1.5 billion to 6.1 billion in just 100 years. The UN calculates that there are now more than 7 billion living humans on Earth, 6.5% of all people ever born, yet less than 200 years ago we numbered a mere 1 billion. Admittedly, the world population growth peaked in 1962, at around 2.1%, and has come down to around half since then, but we are still likely to number over 11 billion by 2100. The real challenge is not only in infrastructure renewal and resilience but in providing all the new infrastructure to support this increase in population as well as solving the problem of global warming - quite a legacy to leave to the next generation. 


Uploaded on behalf of 
Roger M Batten

Committee Member

IET/ACostE Project Controls Technical and Professional Network
  • I do so agree with the content of Roger's letter but I also think that there is a parallel driver and that is the next stages of evolution of technology and the effect on jobs.  Yes population is growing exponentially and there is only a finite resource.  This has been recognised by the work in Product Service Systems, Service Science, and the transition of manufacturing through the growth of servitization.  The Green Issue is very concerning and valid but it is not the only elephant in the room.  I refer to the evolution of manufactured product through automation, AI, and eventually autonomy within the work place.  I have attended various think tanks and other meeting with politicians, academics and researchers in this field and there is growing concern as to what sociiety will do as this technological shift takes place.  It is anticipated that there will be significant job losses in the service sector and blue collar manufacturing with only those who have the techician and above skill sets being employable.  That means that over 50% of the population could be unemployable.  In addition there is talk of job share with those that are employable with only a 2-3 day working  week being available by madate.  This then brings other issues as what to do with the unemployed and how do we fund them.  I see a massive social upheaval caused by the convergence of the point that Roger raises and the ongoing technical evolution and I feel that whilst most are sleep walking into this crisis, those that see it coming  have no idea what to do about it.