How can we stop Covid lockdowns.

Wearing Surgical mask for everyone, I meant more than 99% of citizens, is quite effective for stop spreading of Covid-19. At least, my city can keep at very low infected number, just few persons at most per day among few millions of population if everyone wearing.

But we're not 90% protected here in the UK.  Less than 90% of people have been vaccinated at all, and current evidence is that 2 doses of AstraZeneca are of limited use against the omicron variant.  Maybe once all the boosters have been administered it will be better.  It seems that the boosters are approximately 80% effective (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59696499).  Only about 82% of the population is double-jabbed at present.  So if all of those get the booster, then we will be about 65% protected.

The "R" number for omicrom is believed to be about 3 to 5, which is really high.  So even once everybody has got their boosters, it will still keep spreading.

It may well end up like seasonal flu.  Some variant of it goes around every year, and we have to keep giving booster jabs against the latest variants every year.  Those who refuse to get vaccinated will have to take their chances, while those who have had regular boosters may only get a mild infection.

Yes, I can see a point where track and trace becomes pointless, as it's never going to stop the spread of something so contagious.

There is always the risk of a really serious virus developing either evolving from this or a brand new one at some point. Be thankful that at the moment this one and its siblings are remarkably manageable compared to what it could be.

Consider if it had had a high R factor for airborne transmission say like measles (R 15 to 20, L ~ 0.02%) combined with say the lethality of ebola( Not airborne, needs contact with fluids,  but really high lethality L ~ 0.3- 0;8) we would by now be extinct as a species or getting pretty d. close to it.

Actually that new virus evolving risk has been there and more or less the same every day  for the last few 100,000 years or so and we are very fortunate to be in a century when we can understand and perhaps mitigate things to a degree, though to counter that,  modern  travel patterns work against us in spreading things faster.

I think that the original poster has a point - there is an element of the inevitable about this, we can alter the rate of initial spread perhaps.

It has highlighted, if we did not already know it, that we turn away too great a fraction of those leaving schools and colleges who would like to study medicine, and we could do with rather more qualified at all levels, even if they are not needed all the time, like the TA they can be mobilised as a relief  force at times of stress. 'Overload the NHS' makes it sound like it is the patient's fault, but perhaps it is  a planning shortfall based on some rather lucky previous decades.

So accept more students on medical course, realize the risk is always present, and be ready to mobilise if the big one every comes.

Mike.

Thanks Mike, the media hype is also not helping as it causes anxiety to everyone for no useful reason.  If we were to stop testing and issuing the results that would help immeasurably.

Another thing that needs to be addressed is the requirement to self isolate if you have been near to an infectious person.  This is causing many sportsmen in particular to miss fixtures unnecessarily.  If a covid tests shows them clear then let them play and leave the team medics to keep an eye on them.

To me, everyone is infectious anyway and is carrying the virus but because they have been vaccinated do not develop the flu. Isolation for me is totally unnecessary unless you have tested positive to covid in which case it should be mandatory to stay at home and is common sense anyway. Medical staff should be the very first to receive any vaccinations and booster treatment and again they should not self isolate unless they have a positive covid test result.

You want to stop testing, and people should only isolate if they have tested positive?

At some stage, we should stop testing, stop wearing masks, and get on with our lives. Current measures are clearly not working, so now would be a good time.

Let's get used to the idea that the virus will always be with us and as for 'flu', annual boosters will be advisable.

Eat more garlic.

Z.

[How irritating. I wrote my reply, but the system didn't think I was logged in. Which I obviously was, indeed with 2FA. So in an attempt to post I got bounced to "Welcome! Edit your profile!" Thanks, folks. I'll pass on the explanation, thank you. Yes, the new fonts suck. Especially for those of us whose eyesight is not as good as it was decades ago. Larger, and thicker, please.]

Ad 1. There is mutate and there is mutate. Current vaccines targeted Spike, and Spike mutates more than we'd like. Novavax's vaccine targets the Mpro protease, and I understand there is only one mutation of that known. There is obviously value in attacking parts of SARS-CoV-2 that are much more slowly mutating. I suspect all of the big players are looking at vaccines that target such more slowly mutating parts of SARS-CoV-2. The big question is and will be: for how long vaccines confer protection. With two doses of the current offers (one of Janssen), the answer seems to be three months and then waning for the antibody response (there is hope that T-cell activation lasts longer). THe UK actually knew that in August 2020 (BMJ article, which also noted that a third jab gets it right back up). With a third jab, we'll see, but it might well be at least six months. If we crank up to a year, then a once-a-year jab is manageable, as it is for flu at the moment. 

Ad 2. Yes. Jeremy Farrar and Bill Gates and Gordon Brown have been saying for ever and ever to get the vaccines out there to everybody; the logic is impeccable. They have also pointed out that it is much cheaper than the economic downsides of continuing new waves. AstraZeneca has done its bit.  But we are getting lucky with antivirals, now. Molnupiravir and Paxlovid have just gained EUA in the US and they are approved in GB and EU also. Eric Topol thinks Paxlovid "changes everything." If you are in the early stages of Covid, it's a five-day pack of 2 pills twice a day: Pf-07321332 and ritonavir. 90% effective at avoiding hospitalisation. Molnupiravir, by contrast, only appears to be 30% effective, but if you are one of the 1-in-3 for whom it works, you'll be really happy (except of course you won't know). AstraZeneca also has an oral antiviral on the way that looks very promising. 

So, if we can manufacture this in quantity, fast enough, one can envisage a home medicine cabinet consisting not just of thermometer, pulse oximeter, antiseptic cream, rubbing alcohol and sticking plasters (as I hope we all have), but also including LAT and Paxlovid. 

Ad 3. No. No, no no. LAT tests in every home, please, and used when you think you have symptoms, or you've been in contact with someone who's got sick and/or tested positive. Isolate as far as possible and take your Paxlovid. There is currently some evidence that virus shedding is thereby much reduced, which also reduces your infectivity. Who knows - maybe two or three days will be enough? That is less than what happens with a bad cold or the flu. 

Ad 4. No. No no no no no. What is happening *now* in ICU reflects what happened 3 weeks ago in society. You'll be making decisions you would have need to have made three weeks previously. That is, in some sense, the entire story of government policies on Covid-19 since December 2019, all over the world (in various flavours).

Nice post, BTW

Duuuuh The UK knew about third jabs in August 202*1*, not 2020, obviously.